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Gold/Mining/Energy : Petrokazakhstan Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cooliemon who wrote (1733)	8/6/2001 9:18:02 AM
From: forecaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2357

Cooliebayev: Uncombed Thoughts. 1. SOUTH TURGAI BASIN ACREAGE. In a recent slide show (slide #17) is a statement relating to the South Turgai Basin Map: "Hurricane participates in 87% of all expl and prod'n licenses." I think that now they are after the remaining 13%. The planned acquisitions should be both concluded in August and one of them has a confirmed oil discovery. (Konys? Bektas?) It looks to me that they deliberately delayed exploration drilling in order to buy up the acreage adjacent to the Grabens at relatively low prices. A very bulish sign. 2. BRENT OIL PRICES. The following are monthly averages for the first seven months of 2001: Jan 25.88 Feb 27.73 Q1 26.37 Mar 25.49 Apr 26.48 May 28.56 Q2 27.65 Jun 27.92 Jul 25.29 ----------------------------------------------- 2001 (Jan-Jul) average US$ 26.76 According to Hurricane's reporting, the crude export price increased from US$12.71 in Q1 to US$15.38 in Q2. Many erroneous comments appeared on the chat boards to this respect. Logically, Brent prices were higher in Q2 and there was an additional effect of Chinese exports. After the recent cut of one million barrels/day in OPEC production and heading into a new challenge to heat our homes in the upcoming winter, the seasonal worst in oil prices is probably behind us. The cut will take effect on September 1, and that is when we should see solid strengthening in Brent prices. 3. HHL.A VALUATION. Peters & Co valued Hurricane's shares in the range of C$21.50 to C$23.50. The upper value of the range includes US$36 million for the "South Turgai Basin upside". A mere US$36 million for 830 million barrels of oil prospects identified by detailed seismic 3D analysis? It appears to me that this hardly covers even a small discovery such as the one in East Kumkol, estimated recently at 19.8 million barrels. Remember, Amerada paid US$5.66/barrel of proved and probable reserves owned by Triton in Colombia and Equatorial Guinea. So, I would argue that the 830 million barrels are still out there to be valuated in the near future. After the dividend (-C$4.00) and Q2 cash flows (+US$0.66/FD share = C$1.00/FD share), the fully diluted shares are worth C$20.50. Why would anybody sell now and miss one half of something which by itself is an extremely conservative valuation? Forecaster

To: cooliemon who wrote (1733)	8/16/2001 9:08:25 AM
From: forecaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2357

Coolie: Significance of the 98% vote. 1. On July 20, a vote was held on the Change of Control Provision in the Senior Notes. 2. Afterwards, Hurricane's press release stated: "Of the shareholders who voted, over 98% voted in favour of the resolution." 3. Now, this practical unanimity reveals an interesting fact. All shareholders clearly felt that the provision provides an effective protection against a low takeover bid. 4. It appears logical to me, that if a major player or a group of clandestine major players felt strongly otherwise, they would vote against, and would not use the ineffective route of abstention. 5. From this I conclude that: a) another low bid from CAIH is not anymore in the cards. b) the Cathartidae are just naughty pussycats. 6. There is now nothing serious to stop the big institutions from buying into the company and fully participate in the stock appreciation which is guaranteed by both the great fundamentals (EPS=US$2.69) and fabulous exploration prospects (mean reserve potential of 830 million barrels.) All this in a country which had a first half 2001 GDP increase of 14%, and January-July oil production increase of 20%. Forecaster