Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13475)	8/1/2001 4:30:47 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 52237

Good piece. Thanks. <eom>

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13475)	8/1/2001 4:38:39 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

IMO, this article accurately describes the Street consensus today, and the reason for the rallies we have now, and the April and January rallies. Basically, all 3 of those rallies were based on expectations of a sharp V-shaped recovery. If things aren't getting bad quite so fast, this is the first sign of an inflection point in the markets. That thinking would have got you in at the bottom in 1998, and lots of people are expecting the same kind of bottom in 2001. Oddly, the analysts (while they upgrade various techs), are recently starting to say that end-demand isn't going to really come back till 2H02 (not 4Q01 or 1Q02, as they were saying a month ago). Since this anticipated rebound in fundamentals is a full year away, and investors don't buy based on earnings hopes that far out, those analyst comments should be a reason for investors to sell. But, instead, we are having a rally. Weird. In the real world, consumer confidence is falling, consumer spending is being propped up by yet more debt (an unsustainable trend), unemployment and job insecurity is rising, the entire industrialized world is on the edge of recession, and inflation is hovering just below 4% (a critical danger level). So, I am vigorously selling this rally, just as I sold the January and April rallies. When the Nas and the SOX are testing previous lows, I'll be back to 90% long. At some point, it will be time to go back to LTB&H. But not yet, IMO.