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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JustTradeEm who wrote (81114)	8/1/2001 5:54:57 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

JB, First of all. The ML report was out overnight. I just made a note of it in that post. About Merrill Lynch downgrade of the sector at lower levels. If you recall a lot of my posts over the past 2 to 3 months, you will note that I was waiting for these guys (ML)to finally give up on their bearishness. When some of their analysts would make a less bearish comments and then a transition to more neutral commentary, I took it as a sign that they will be upgrading sooner or later. Each change in their comments kept pointing me to that conclusion and I posted this view very often. My fundamental reason for it was that the semiconductor sector would be a rebound primarily due to the launch of Windows XP (because this one means more hardware upgrades than Window ME) and I have noted that these guys will want to get ahead of it. Their analysts were probably hoping the market headed lower so they could make a big splash with an upgrade. Even though they may have been wrong to stay bearish at lower levels, did you not notice their ability to move the stocks so much today? I don't give them much respect but if you are positioning for a trade, it matters!!! (of course it sets up for possibly a short on AMAT type of names at some point but I have not looked into that yet). Basically, I am not giving credit to these guys. John Joseph of SSB is the guy who called the top and appears to have called the bottom in the sector (imho); at least it appears that way. On my calling a summer rally. I have made errors on my predictions in May and June but my reasons for the rally were pretty clear if one reads my old posts--although not every post had the reasoning it (too much repitition). When it did not materialize I went bearish for a short period of time before predicting a rebound. I predicted a rebound simply because there was no momemtum for it go lower. My reason was due to the higher short interest and the way it was distributed among the Nasdaq stocks. In addition, there was the lack of techs in major funds and higher cash levels as of June (in my sample). That is also what made me bullish in July. When I say summer rally, I am not attaching any magnitude to it. So if you are ticked off about the markets going up, don't take your frusterations out on me. I certainly would not do that to you. So if that is the type of criticism you are going to directs towards me, maybe just ignore my posts. Criticizing is easy (very easy). I don't recall any of your market predictions and I am not about to dig up old posts. best of luck with your trading. BTW--I am going to be right and I am going to be wrong. I give my reasons for my position. It is obviously much harder to predict very short term moves as I have realized.