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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JustTradeEm who wrote (81119)	8/1/2001 7:58:21 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

So, explain ML's downgrade of DELL one day prior or their specific exclusion of INTEL and AMD in their report < you still haven't admitted to actually reading it > ? First, I don't believe ML downgraded Dell. It was a EPS reduction. I am very aware of their logic for upgrading the stocks. Did not read the actual ML report but did see the quotes from their analysts in various internet news sources. I also knew that Intel was left out of that report. I actually view that as a very good sign.<g> It is all about Joe Osha, the Intel analyst. How can one call the bottom without Intel? See posts below on that subject. You should note that when Joseph called the bottom, Intel was at the center of it. I am willing to bet that when and if Dan Niles decides to call the bottom in semis, the heart of his call will also be Intel. I would not even rule out an upgrade of Intel while leaving out the most of the other names. If there is any upgrade coming on the sector from Ashok Kumar......(you get the picture).<g> My reason: Intel is a special situation. Intel is also the principal driver of the semiconductor industry; it is getting closer to regaining its near monopoly status. Just listen to AMD CEO's (in their conference call) and you will know what I mean. You will detect incredible anger directed at Intel; remember that AMD was gaining market share over the last year or so and this is guy is still fuming. It makes you wonder. They are called "sell side analysts" for a reason ... mark them up and sell them !!! Yesterday, the SOX index had failed to break resistance, overbought sector < near term > and about to plunge below 600 once again .... voila, ML upgrades to pop it over resistance. They do have a TA department at ML .... quite the coincidence ! Will be interesting to see where the SOX is one month from today ! I wonder if the ML analysts gave their traders a heads up on this call so they could cover their shorts ahead of time. Should help the brokerage make some profits on trading their own account---the brokerage does trade its own account--I don't mean the analysts. Don't get me wrong about my views on the semis. I am very undecided on the group for the longer term. My focus is just Intel as I believe much is happening with this company ahead of Windows XP. It is very believable that orders in the industry should pick up ahead of XP and in the December quarter. Some will take that as a sign to go all out and chase the stocks possibly setting up for a major shorting opportunity late by early to mid next year. I am only interested in what happens in the intermediate term and the news flow should be positive in the coming months. Does anyone expect the stocks to trade on PEs just coming out of a major downturn in the industry--people will just look at the improving short term fundamental setting up for possible disappointment later. Even in the short term, I am watching AMAT for shorting opportunities; many expect them to warn about the next quarter (cautious comments recently) and if the stock moves up significantly, it should tank on any warning. Here is my view on ML's Osha (INTEL analyst) Message 16154852