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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (81125)	8/2/2001 12:06:36 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I'm sure you are watching INTC, 32 or so will be the key to that one. Absolutely. It is there now! I believe it will break out of the 32 to 33 range. The news on the competitive front (with AMD) has been getting better. Pentium 4 is about to go more mainstream; the chipsets are now being made available for NON-Rambus memory. CEO has called the bottom in their business overnight as well. Most important is that we did not get analyst upgrades recently!<g> Going back to your Equation for Microsoft MSFT = (first mover + safe haven)/rotating money There is no doubt in my mind that this is the reason Intel is moving up much better than MSFT. So many large cap funds bought MSFT but avoided Intel first half of the year even though Intel is the second largest stock on the Naz and a Dow component. MSFT was the defensive play in a market that was heading down. Unlike other defensive names like Oil/Gas, the earnings picture only gets better for MSFT. That is why I see it as a good long term holding to accumulate in the coming days and weeks. The thing to watch will be if MSFT can delay the case on Windows until after XP launch...going to read up on some anti-trust expert opinions on the matter. Under-ownership or over-ownership plays a big part in the movement of stocks...and imho, we are seeing it now with the relative outperformance of INTC over MSFT. I guess you are probably aware of how bullish I was (and still am) on Intel in the near term.<g> (even as the Nasdaq pulled back off the highs, Intel stayed up there) BTW--I am using your setup of the stockcharts; I like the layout with the numbers right on the charts as well as all the moving averages. Here is the Intel chart for the year. stockcharts.com[w,a]dbolnimy[d20010101,20010802][pb25!b50!b100!b200!f][vc60][iUc20!Ua12,26,9!Lb14!Lf!Lg!Lj[$spx]]