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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (903)	8/1/2001 9:51:54 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95427

My answer to that is simply to point out the obvious. Semiconductor Capital Equipment stocks are not Internet startups. They are cyclical companies. Most have a great deal of cash on hand. Many are still cash flow positive. That being said the SOX has been in a trading range since it bottomed in early April. If I were shorting man I would have shorted again today and bet that I could make money in the next two weeks or so as we trade back down to below 540 again. Then I would go long. But why short these stocks at all? Too risky if you ask me. There are still Internet startups around. RtS

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (903)	8/1/2001 10:07:51 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95427

June 15, 2000 Equipment stocks will definitely go lower...eventually. Right now the demand for all-things chip justify the stock valuations; no way are the stocks ahead of themselves. Folks seem to think earnings are just going to magically disappear. They are currently acting as if the internet contagion implies the chip and equipment stocks should tank as well. They are acting as if the fact that our sector has earnings (EARNINGS!) and the slot coms don’t and won’t doesn’t make a difference! It does; you just watch: by August, 2001 the chips and equipment stocks will be double their current levels while all that internet junk will be down, say, 50-60% Does anyone here honestly believe that earnings and revenue will just vanish as they fast as they appeared last winter? Ah, to return to those halcyon days of just two months ago, April, 1999, when our confidence was REALLY high. Well, not to worry: we know that the demand for chips won’t slow measurably even if the internet goes bust because the diverse application of chips provides a buffer against the old-time boom and bust cycle. This time really is different. So does anyone here really, honestly believe global demand will just PUFF! dry up overnight from the broad and high stable plateau it currently occupies? Regardless, most of the companies have grown so large and have such a range of products that their revenues – and their stock prices – are relatively immune to any moderation in economic activity. Someone else mentioned that he thought 2001 would be a very tough year and the stocks in the sector would be about 50% lower by August, 2001. In my view, this is an inexperienced investor who, at the first sign of troubled waters, overreacts, and sells far too soon. Some of the best returns come on these temporary dips. Well I guess at least once person believes earnings just vanish into thin air! Fifty-percent! Do people really think earnings climb this long treacherous mountain…and then just fall off a cliff?? The reliability of earnings places this sector upon such a high and privileged status that it can’t even see down to the cliffs anymore.