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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (81133)	8/2/2001 3:35:15 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

If you listened to the ML idiot that caused this insanity today, he started the conversation by stating that he heard no inclination of improvement in business from the companies he was talking to. Pray tale then, why his entertaining call? As noted before, the FA sucks, continues to suck, and will continue to suck for (at least) the next two quarters. However, as also noted, this too shall pass. So what is your point? Are you suggesting that people buy when the actual upturn in the semiconductor business materializes? Or are you just suggesting (like Dan Niles) that it gets worse before it gets better. It appears that many analysts have taken the view that can't get much worse. I just happen to agree with them. It becomes just a waiting game for the upturn....I would not chase most of the stocks. I do have a few favorites. It is obvious how I feel about Intel (super bullish) but apart from that one, I am not too keen on most other names as good long term holdings (only good long trades into year end). They don't appear to be good shorts especially as we keep getting news that order cancellations have dropped..and that is what they appear to be doing these days....meaning plenty of near term short covering--IMHO. --------------------------------------------------------- Here is my view on the long term prospects (I stress long term). We get a seasonal uptick like the Intel CEO suggests. Second, we get a surge in semiconductor activity caused by Windows XP launch. This will be seen as the start of the new up cycle and many will suggest it will be multiyear. Windows XP uptick will mask reality. The activity will be intrepreted as too strong to be just a seasonal factor. IMHO, they will be wrong. Then the stocks start blowing up. There...call me a long term bear on the sector.<g> I still say that Intel will become something close to a monopoly again and it should do very well in the coming months and not drop as much next year after a strong run up into 2002. Short to intermediate term, I would expect the sector to at least hold up or go higher as the news is likely to get better..again thanks to launch of Windows XP. Of course, I am assuming that the investors/traders will run up these stocks this fall and maybe even early 2002 before the big drop. IMHO, it would be a bad idea to bank on bad news coming out of the September earnings---too close to Windows XP launch and Intel/MU types are going to be on a roll, imho. Even if the earnings are not good, the new order activity should be solid (again XP stimulas). (of course my long term view is subject to change based upon how things unfold into year end)