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To: robert b furman who wrote (50070)	8/2/2001 7:51:50 AM
From: willcousa	Respond to of 70976

Hi Robert, nice post. I like your characterization of the economy. All these layoffs certainly haven't affected unemployment as yet. When we know the bottom is in it will be too late.

To: robert b furman who wrote (50070)	8/2/2001 10:33:57 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Nice post. I see the bears now making the same mistakes that the mega bulls did at the top. The mega bulls didn't acknowledge that valuations were out of whack and they DID NOT take profits off the table at or on the way up to the eventual top. They looked foolish when we crashed. Now we have the market standing on its head and the "smart" looking discussion posters are the "shorts". My guess is many will be stuck covering and then be at levels too high to get in and enjoy good gains. I am reading denial from those that are just in cash also. Good news comes out and they, trying to justify sitting in cash waiting for a bottom, will say it is "just rumors". It reminds me of how many of us were saying "but orders are still going up" when the Book-2-bill changed slope at the top and started to decline. Nobody rings a bell at tops and bottoms despite how much we'd appreciate it. I've always made my best money buying great companies with good management teams in downturns where they spend a huge amount on R&D or capital equipment so they gain market share and do better then the competition when the market really does turn. Believe it or not, last month I was adding to my internet shares and nearly have a double in the shares bought (still under water overall in that sector, but not too bad due to limiting exposure). Bought some telecom also... with profits taken from this sector. The Market has been predicting things pretty well. I just can't imagine being fully in or out as it is too easy to miss out on tops AND bottoms. I want cash to buy when the market is low and I want good exposure at the bottom when the markets take off for no good reason. Anyway, great post. People should read it again! Kirk out

To: robert b furman who wrote (50070)	8/2/2001 11:17:59 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Bob, Add GW Bush to the list of winners when the economy resumes robust growth whether in this first leg up or later on. It is my opinion that Bush who infuriates liberals and intellectuals with his simple approaches to a variety of issues, will be resoundingly reelected in 2004. He is building a base that will include those who have voted with him already plus Reagan blue collar democrats and Hispanics that will be tough to beat. I also suspect that the knee jerk anti liberalism of Bush on environmental issues as well as anti missile technology will play well as new treaties are negotiated more in line with long term american interests. In this environment there is no reason to believe that the economy wont do well. mike PS By the way those tax rebates are having impact and this probably is driving this rally more than other factors.

To: robert b furman who wrote (50070)	8/2/2001 11:37:37 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Your bullish scenario could well happen. I am not wedded to my bearish scenario, I know the limits of my ability to predict macro events/trends (severely limited, that is). There are several very different possible macro outcomes for the next 12 months. I think our two posts have framed the range of possible futures well. It's useful to keep the several likely outcomes in mind, and constantly check them against the facts, as those facts emerge day by day. This will change the odds of each scenario happening, in a fluid manner. I am well aware that the danger of my stance, is that I miss the bottom (expecting things to get worse than they ever do), and don't go long until the stocks have already doubled off their lows. I'm taking that risk, with open eyes, as I think the balance of risks still is toward more downside. In the meantime, I continue to make money trading the ranges. Bought TXN at 30, 6 weeks ago, just sold it at 38. Since I post all my trades the day I make them, everyone should be aware I currently have no position (long or short) in any semi-equip, so I am not just speaking my position. At the moment, the only short position I have is QCOM put LEAPs, bought when the stock hit 65.

To: robert b furman who wrote (50070)	8/2/2001 3:37:47 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Sound post, Robert. It's good to see some people are thinking with their heads not their hearts out there.

To: robert b furman who wrote (50070)	8/2/2001 9:31:31 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Bob, Excellent post as usual. What the Bears are failing to see now is that Greed works both ways. Expecting the Nasdaq to drop another 50% is not entirely reasonable. Greed does work both ways, yet this is rarely acknowledged as such, either here on SI or CNBC. It instead is time to do the opposite - be aggressive. That's right, it is time to be aggressive at the bottom - the safest place to be aggressive in. Remember where you heard it first. If you're short - GET LONG !!! If you're long - GET MORE !!! If one doesn't buy now, exactly what are they waiting for? Great post. Brian