To: Zoltan! who wrote (166957 ) 8/2/2001 11:30:29 AM From: Neocon Respond to of 769670 POLL ANALYSES July 26, 2001 Americans' Economic Outlook Inches Upward for Second Straight Month But no sign the public feels current economic conditions have improved by Lydia Saad GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup poll offers some indication that the American public’s mediocre assessment of the nation’s economy may be on the mend. Of Gallup’s two key ratings of the economy -- how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they think it is getting better or getting worse -- the latter has shown small but steady improvement over the past two months. Recent Economic Ratings Thirty-five percent of the nation’s adults, according to Gallup’s July 19-22 telephone survey, now believe the economy is getting better, up from 29% in mid-June and from 25% in mid-May. Over the same three months, perceptions of economic conditions have remained flat, with 40% to 42% of Americans saying the economy is in excellent or good shape and 57% to 60% characterizing it as only fair or poor. The two key questions are: 1. How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 2. Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse? A Leading Indicator? The recent improvement in Americans’ economic outlook is notable because a slump in the rating earlier this year seemed to foreshadow the sharp decline in public evaluations of economic conditions that ensued a month later. As a result, the current finding of two months of slight improvement in Americans’ economic outlook is a hopeful sign. While not a definitive indication that consumer confidence in the economy will soon increase, it suggests that if Americans’ economic outlook continues to improve, improved perceptions about the current state of the economy may follow. Through the first half of last year, both of Gallup’s economic indicators were fairly robust. As recently as August 2000, 74% of Americans characterized national economic conditions as "excellent" or "good," and 60% thought the economy was "getting better." However, by January 2001 the percentage who were optimistic about the direction of the economy had fallen 28 points to just 32%, while positive ratings of current economic conditions had fallen just 7 points, to 67%. A month later, in February 2001, public perceptions of the current economy also nose-dived, dropping to 51%, at the same time that the percentage of the public thinking the economy was getting better tumbled further to 23%. Since then both measures have remained low, with ratings of economic conditions sinking further into the low 40s, but with the forward looking optimism measure creeping upward to its current 35%. Economy Not a Top-of-Mind Concern Despite feeling that the economy is in sub-par shape and getting worse, relatively few Americans name the economy when asked what they think is the most important problem facing the country -- perhaps tempering the extent to which the current ratings should be viewed as highly negative indicators of consumer confidence. Only 14% of Americans name the economy as the most important problem today, similar to the percentages recorded each month since April, although up slightly since the 7% recorded in January. Combining the number mentioning the economy with other types of economic concerns mentioned, such as unemployment, gas prices and taxes, a total of just 31% name any type of economic concern in the latest poll. By contrast, at the height of economic concern during the 1991 recession, 42% of Americans mentioned the economy, specifically, and a total of 73% mentioned some kind of economic problem. And at the height of recent economic optimism last summer, the respective numbers were 6% (those mentioning the economy) and 23% (all economic concerns combined). Thus, the current rate of top-of-mind concern over the economy is more in line with economic good times rather than recessionary times.gallup.com