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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (50083)	8/2/2001 11:45:02 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

Someone reported on my site that they had a DELL PC on order last week and Dell delayed shipment until August 1st. suite101.com This was unusual and he postulated that Dell had made its numbers (or was happy with the numbers) and was delaying shipments until the August when its next quarter starts... Interesting... either Dell is delaying shipments to load up the next quarter OR they have more orders than they can handle (hard to believe there is a parts shortage which would be the other alternative.) Here is an interesting chart of Dell prices. suite101.com Sure looks like Dell Bottomed in Dec '00, 7 months before people are saying the PC industry is bottoming... Sun probably represents the "Server Market" and it has a potential bottom in on April 3 as the chart shows. It would make sense that consumer sales (Dell PCs) would come back first then companies would start to invest in infrastructure after they saw the consumer sales coming back so Sun would start to improve. That sure seems to be what the market is saying. Kirk

To: Kirk © who wrote (50083)	8/2/2001 12:28:33 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"Actually, the market predicted the recession or "profits recession" rather well." That's easy to say in retrospect, and in addition you're talking about a huge decline. The rally we've had so far is still not even out of the noise. If you're going to make the case that the market is now making a prediction that can be relied upon, then you're going to need to explain why downtrends of equal magnitude cannot be relied on in predicting the opposite. "I don't think you can use absolute levels as the lemmings seem more than willing to over pay for stocks in fashion, but if you pay attention to valuation I think it does carry a message." Now you're making sense. "Being bearish when the market is low sounds smart just as being a permabull that never takes profits sounds smart at market tops." I don't care what "sounds" smart, and I don't care about whether people label me as a bull or a bear. When I commit the rest of my cash to the market, I am going to need a reason that is related to actual data. That is the discipline I am following. If I don't get the absolute bottom, I don't care. As our mutual friend Dan G once said, "Let somebody else's money find the bottom."