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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (50104)	8/2/2001 4:14:21 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

"Nothing wrong with [ex-Dilbert's] position... you could be right and get some real bargains, but the risk is the market just goes up a nice 10% a year for the next ten years and you complain here that it is nothign more than tulips. We sure heard enough of that song in the 1990's from the perma bears." Surely you're not saying that's the only risk? I tend to agree with you that there is no guarantee that valuations will come down to earth before the next bull market, but there's no guarantee they won't, either. As far as the semiconductor equipment sector is concerned, it seems to me that any long uptrend is likely to have a change in the trend of semiconductor sales somewhere near the beginning of it. Waiting for that might cause one to miss the bottom, but so what? Picking the exact bottom is an unrealistic expectation anyway. A more reasonable expectation is that one will get into the sector too early or too late. One is not inherently superior to the other.