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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chartseer who wrote (81143)	8/2/2001 2:18:44 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

chartseer, Years ago, my first trading experience with trading was with commodities. My first learning about charts was then courtesy of Commodity Price Charts which back then I found very frustrating as they were mailed out once a week. Too often, the charts were "obsolete" by the time I got to see them. At the same time, I was very interested in how Lunar Phases influenced trading behavior and I would mark up all my charts with the FM's and NM's to see if some sort of pattern could be deciphered. Later, I came across Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon which indicated to me others had conceived and worked over this idea long before me. I bought that book (interesting - but a total waste of the big bucks, IMO) and was further frustrated by the claim that a "pattern" or signature existed for each commodity, stock or any trading vehicle. In fact, I found that the patterns were contrived, force-fit if you will and the use of "inversions" to justify when the pattern was "all wet". I have found that trying to predict the exact pattern or anticipating too far in advance whether the date would be a high or low is a fruitless and costly exercise. My own analysis of using basic trending "rules" and the use of chart indicators and much later use of "real-time" charts in conjunction with then anticipating the highs and lows worked very nicely! The main drawback is when a strong trend is in place and price "blows" through a turn date as if it wasn't there. It may only appear as a minor blip on the chart not even breaking the trend in place. This occurred on the compx after the strong sell-off April 2000. In a range-bound market or even early phase trending, I find the lunar information works great. Nice to come across someone else who uses this information. I would be quite interested in hearing your use and experience with this phenomenon if you would care to share. I strongly believe that the use of the lunar phases has given me a strong edge when predicting future price movement. Anyone notice how I've been bullish particularly after the last New Moon? LOL!!! It's use allows me to take a position that may be in stark contrast to the logic and information which would suggest the exact opposite scenario. All those who (IMO correctly) applied the poor fundamental environment for stocks to anticipated market direction are eating their "shorts" now....ggg But, very soon they will be on the correct side once again!!! The grand irony is that many of the bears will finally become bullish at the exact time it will be correct to go short once again....... Best Regards, Eichler We should have a reversal anytime between now and next Tues, IMO...unless this move (which I would find incredulous) turns out to be very powerful. Fundamentals don't support continued up much past this next potential turn date......