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Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: changedmyname who wrote (13047)8/2/2001 2:50:01 PM
From: Rob C.  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 15615
 
Any guess as to what GX will be trading at one year from now? Five years? Ten years?

I am in for the long haul here, is anyone else?

Regards,

Rob



To: changedmyname who wrote (13047)8/2/2001 2:59:45 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake  Respond to of 15615
 
I often think about all that "smart" money that bought GX when they did their offering last year - high-volume trades were going off at $33 for seemingly days on end. I also keep thinking about whoever it was that took the other side of Winnick's recent collar. I mean, we are talking substantial amounts of money. Did they just say to themselves: "boy, 10 mln. shares at $12 - what a deal"? And why did they do it that way? Usually, when you do a deal like that, it is because you don't believe you can buy 10 mln shares without affecting the market, i.e. if you were to buy 10 mln. shares in the open market, you'd have to pay a lot more because of the resulting buying pressure. So, you go for a deal like that, and sometimes pay a premium of 10% above current market value. But it seems there should have been no difficulty in getting 10 mln. shares of GX below $8 easy - look at volumes trading when GX was below $8 - 20-30 mln. Patient buying over several weeks could have easily gotten you the 10 mln. shares below $8 (if you count today, below $7 as well, LOL!).

So, now here they sit having bought at $33, or even $12 - RTQ GX $5.7. That's a better than 50% loss even if bought at $12. Amazing. Who were those big buyers? After all, it is only big money that can afford a deal for 10 mln. shares (though at the rate things are going, soon just about anybody will be able to afford 10 mln. shares, LOL!). Didn't they do a lot of research, before dropping $100-$200 mln.? What can one conclude from this, if anything? Sure a lot of money has gone down the drain. Yes, we can say "but in the looooong term, blah, blah, blah" - except that you could have done 50% better by buying today instead of jumping the gun by a couple of months. That's some $70 mln. difference. Not a petty sum (unless you are a "careless billionaire"<ggg>). And that is assuming that indeed "in the loooong term", it pays off... which begs the question: but where's the risk premium? If I am to buy a security that is high risk, I must receive a discount, in order to take the risk. Not pay full price of $12. Interesting to say the least, LOL!

Morgan