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To: Suresh who wrote (8106)	8/2/2001 6:43:51 PM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 57684

>>the trajectory of that recovery/growth is a big question mark. the trajectory of growth is always a big question mark. true growth is certainly going to be a lot better than it has been. >> Do you know how much BRCM inventory would be written off by their clients ? good question. however, nobody knows for sure... unfortunately, not even the customers or Broadcom. I had an expert explain how oem's write off inventory and let's just say that it isn't a science. They basically create a simple bell curve relating to how long inventory is expected to be sitting on the books before it can be used and then put a line down the middle of that bell curve and then write-off the right side of that curve (the older stuff). This creates a new bell curve based on the old left-side of the bell-curve. the theory behind this makes sense from an accounting perspective, although it isn't perfectly accurate. my previous point was that the companies that have historically received lower multiples because of their rapid product cycles are actually the biggest relative beneficiaries of an inventory glut. that said, there isn't much differentiation among semi stocks as 80%+ of their daily moves are driven by semi stocks in general and their beta to the market.