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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sampat Saraf who wrote (21094)	8/2/2001 6:03:10 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

RE: "Where do you see hole in this valuation model?" Suppose I accept: 1. They appear to have monopoly status on Fiber Optics -- a future growth engine for the economy; and 2. ...eventually the business starts charging more to get some earnings on their books. In fact, they don't need to have a monopoly or to start charging more. The hole is your use of a '98 price with 2001 sales without the use of the number of shares in '98 and 2001. They have 1.32BILLION shares. Your $50 price gives a market cap of $66BILLION. Current sales forecasts are for less than $450M/quarter. So, it looks like $1.25 to $1.5B for the next year. Your $50 price gives a P/S of 44 to 52.8. I think 6 is ample under the current circumstances and 6 yields a price range from $7.5 to 9.