Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (44347)	8/2/2001 4:55:14 PM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

U.S. investors will realize during the Q3FY2001 earnings reporting period that economic recovery will not only not happen in Q4, but that we may not start to really turn the corner until the beginning of Q3FY2002 (which starts next July 1). I certainly have no way to assess or comment on your individual stock targets, but I agree with the general spirit of the statement above, if not the dates (why Q3CY2002? why not Q2CY2003?). I think we're in for a big pothole when consumer spending collapses suddenly and we get another round of warnings from corporations. I think we'll be a lot worse off a year from now, not a lot better. The market can only treat bad news as "the bottom" for so long. I continue to be amazed that just about every talking head I hear on TV or read in mass-market print media (i.e., not Alan Abelson) is still spouting the same "recovery's just a quarter or two away" drivel that they were talking in Dec. 2000 and every day since then. I've heard the sound bytes that say "Fed cuts usually take six to nine months to work their way through the economy" and "Fed cuts usually take nine to twelve months to work their way through the economy", and "Fed cuts usually take about a year to work their way through the economy." I'm waiting for the one that says 18 months, which I expect to hear any day. But it might all be fixed miraculously overnight by Windows XP...I cling to that hope. --QS

To: High-Tech East who wrote (44347)	8/2/2001 5:07:13 PM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Oh I forgot Ken. There is some good news. I heard James J. Cramer say on CNBC yesterday that when Windows XP comes out in late October, there's going to be a mad rush to buy PC's, because right now everyone's penning up their PC demand so they can get Windows XP bundled with their new machine and not have to pay to upgrade it. (I think an October upgrade to XP is free if you buy a PC now from a big player, but that fact didn't deter Cramer.) So there's going to be a mad rush in the PC business in November, and a super holiday PC selling season that will spark a general year-end tech recovery. This information may prompt you to change your planning. I would change your allocation to 90% tech, 5% cash, and a Six-Dollar Burger at Carl's Jr. --QS

To: High-Tech East who wrote (44347)	8/2/2001 8:57:49 PM
From: Kevin Rose	Respond to of 64865

Thanks for sharing the results. Some were good, some weren't so hot, but I think you beat most of the fund managers :) Although I do not agree that your scenerio is the most likely, I cannot argue that it is not possible. First, I agree with the initial part; there will be a run up between now and the beginning of 'warning season' (which always seems to come earlier, each quarter). Second, I agree that the recovery is being hyped a lot, and at best will be a slow step recovery. Given that, I am toying with the idea of riding the wave up, then pulling out as much as possible mid- to end-Sept, with the idea of coming back at the start of Nov. The risk is missing a better-than-anticipated 3rd quarter season; jumping out at, say, 2400, and having to climb back in at, say, 2700. However, with the hype up of the 'bottom', I think that expectations for Q3 are already way too high; can you imagine what they will be if the NAZ runs up 300-400? Might be that a end-of-Sept NAZ 2400/start of Nov NAZ 1900 scenerio is just too risky... Thanks for planting the seed to mull over. I think the risk/reward is just too big to ride out the next earnings season.

To: High-Tech East who wrote (44347)	8/8/2001 11:19:57 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

hi ken, any chance i can buy sunw at $6 ? when i read this post from you I thought i was going to miss the boat.. if sunw were to rise w/out me fully loading up. Recently sold lot of trading Dell (up 50%) to buy sunw at 14.x. do you still belive what your wrote here? or is the rally over? <<<< Equities will continue to rally into early or mid September ... maybe up quite a bit overall from now to then or plus 20 to 25% from August 1. >>>> What is your down side target on csco?