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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (39734)	8/2/2001 8:14:20 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Yes Jill and I will tell him I had one on June 16. :-) d

To: Jill who wrote (39734)	8/2/2001 10:41:35 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

General Market Commentary Updated: 03-Aug-01 All kinds of market cliches come to mind at this point. These include, but are not limited to: 1) never short a dull market, 2) nobody rings a bell at the market bottom, and 3) never underestimate the ability of a market to turn. On its face, perhaps Thursday's performance on the Nasdaq -- up 19 points -- wasn't all that spectacular. Nonetheless, the market's capacity to build on yesterday's gains at all has to be encouraging to market bulls. Yesterday, we highlighted the significance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and its relationship to the Nasdaq. Almost as if on cue, Intel's (INTC) CEO Craig Barrett comes out making bullish comments at a Malaysian investment conference -- yes, that was "Malaysian investment conference". He reiterated Intel's view of a second half 2001 improvement, pointing to favorable seasonal factors in addition to the rollout of Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows XP. While his comments were not entirely new to the markets, they served to drive buy interest in chips nonetheless. It also helped bring the markets back to what has historically driven the tech sector -- that's new product cycles from technology leaders Intel and Microsoft. From a technical perspective, there are also a few interesting points worth mentioning. The Nasdaq managed an impressive surge in the final hour to close literally on its 50-day simple moving average. To be specific, the Nasdaq closed at 2087.38 whereas the 50-day simple moving average is 2087.39. Market internals, while not overwhelming, were once again strong in Thursday's session and the hi/lo differential continues to generate bullish readings. At the current moment, it looks as if the index is more or less on a pivot point. The immediate area to the upside is cluttered with a few potential minor resistance levels -- the likely candidates appear to be 2088, round number resistance at 2100 which approximates the high of the most recent buy wave as well as Thursday's intraday high, and 2112 which represents a 62% retracement of the July sell wave. After that, the chart is relatively empty and the bar gets raised substantially. If the Nasdaq can break above the 2112 area over the next few days we would start looking at the 2175-2182 area as the next target. That's an area of prior congestion that also coincides with a 62% retracement of the Spring rally. Now that we've covered the upside targets, it's probably worth mentioning the Nasdaq is getting somewhat extended on the very near-term indicators. Should the index should head lower, the technical picture is a bit more clear (we've all become familiar with this downside territory). The immediate downside targets would be Thursday's intraday low around 2060 followed up by some chart congestion in the band of 2045 to 2050. Friday's Employment Report for July has a chance to set the stage for the next significant move. If the market gets numbers it likes, there's always the prospect of an opening gap higher, bypassing the nearby resistance levels. If the market doesn't like the numbers, you may want to start thumbing through those downside support candidates. Whatever happens on Friday, the Nasdaq's recent advance has definitely stirred the pot a bit and made things more interesting. Skepticism over the current move remains high which should serve as a favorable backdrop for a subsequent, if not immediate, advance over current price levels.