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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6515)	8/2/2001 7:10:47 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

china has the biggest GSM network in the WORLD. there is no economic incentive to build out 2G CDMA there. maybe for some yak herders in tibet. meanwhile, china does not have the money to support 3G. so i think it is a golden opportunity for china to get a peek at QCOM's IP...all the chinese have to do is issue a positive press release about some BS 10mil sub network they plan for the yak herders. meanwhile, they add more GSM subs than CDMA adds subs worldwide, month after month. LOL! QUALCOMM has had flat profits but look inside that and count the subscriber growth rate and technology development. TDMA is now growing faster than CDMA. 2G CDMA is just a niche--which is unprofitable for ALL HANDSET MAKERS! how long do you expect everybody to support this situation. no wonder NOK has balked on 2G CDMA and focused on GSM and TDMA, where the money is. the only reason QCOM trades at its high multiple is the hype about 3G. but IMO 3G will be grossly delayed around the world due to the incredible debt burden of the carriers. QCOM better whip out the checkbook if they want 3G to move! meanwhile, i suspect the payoff to investors--in the form of rapidly rising cash flows that would justify an incredibly high multiple--will be delayed...once again. Maurice, IMHO the big payoff to QCOM investors has come and gone. 1999 was great, but that was it. from now on, they're just another company.