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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (54259)	8/3/2001 8:31:35 AM
From: HH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Usually its not a good idea to get so emotional about a company (or its CEO) -g- HH

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (54259)	8/3/2001 8:44:48 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi all, the last few posts were more of the same rhetoric by the various Cisco bashing factions, so I thought I'd inject a little common sense here. From a short term perspective: I'm thinking that the market is riding Cisco up until Tuesday's earnings release in anticipation of them meeting #s. So I'm sure something has leaked out. Therefore, it may be safe to assume that they will make their reduced estimates. I think this because you wouldn't have analysts coming out and guessing specific things like I've been reading about (Cisco will come in at the midpoint of their revenue guidance, etc). So if all is well and they give us visibility into the future then we establish a new range from $20-24. If all is well, but they give no guidance, then I think we sell off within a week or two after earnings. So we're back to the $17-20 range again. My guess is that the economy is still in the toilet and that sentiment will turn downwards again driving all stocks to another low in the Sept-Oct timeframe. Yes, that includes Cisco (guess on Cisco is $17 or lower). . Mid-term: Then we'll get the optimism rally from Nov to Jan, maybe pushing Cisco back above $20 and maybe as high as $25, and then return to the lows in our trading ranges in March to April, with Cisco back below $20 again. Then in the summer of 2002, the glimmering of upward momentum in tech earnings we probably will have seen in the first calendar quarter of 2002, will make for a real optimistic ride upwards in stock prices. At that point, I'm guessing we see Cisco in a new trading range of $25-30 and the general economy will be looking pretty healthy. Long term: All of this is setting us up for 2003, which will be the year we've all been waiting for. This will be the year that 3G is starting to show real progress and the metro buildouts will start alleviating some of the bottlenecks to bandwidth growth. Telecoms will have opened their purses again and spending will start hitting on all cylinders again. It won't be anything like the 1995-2000 boom, but it will be sustainable growth. In 2003, I expect Cisco to hit $40 and stay above that as they continue to grow their cash hoard and their revenues. In addition, it will have become abundantly clear that the real winner of the 2000-2002 correction was Cisco. Cisco's market share gains will be impressive and Juniper will be struggling to maintain the market share they gained when Cisco wasn't competing with them on the high end. So to sum up, the following are my guesses, which you should completely ignore, because they are just wild ass guesses and are my own based on my own crappy research and forecasts (in other words, do your own homework and don't rely on me for your loss of wealth; I'm good enough at losing my own money, so I don't want to lose yours as well): Cisco estimated stock price Aug 2001 - $17-20, if no future guidance and acknowledgement that bottom is in; $20-24 if mgmt gives guidance and acknowledges that bottom has been made Sept/Oct 2001 - $17-20 as economy duldrums reasserts itself Nov/Jan 2002 - $24-27, as optimism rears its head again March/April 2002 - low $18-21 Summer 2002 - $25-30 range as solid growth emerges again 2003 - $30-40, with Cisco hitting $40 and staying above that by end of calendar year. So yes, I think we may see a double from these levels within 2 years, which are good gains. But there will be lots of trading opportunities throughout that time. Again, pls don't rely on my guesses. If you have a brain, you'll do your own homework and make your own forecasts. I have been tremendously wrong over the last year and am likely wrong again. But I like to post my thoughts anyway.