Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6524)	8/2/2001 11:16:51 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 74559

the problem is, investors in the aggregate lack imagination. that is, the world is seen only as a line of time unfolding in connected dots--there is no thought space for discontinuities. lack of imagination, and lack of respect for fat tails, is what killed LTCM and has killed the lemmings of the past, present and future. step back and look at the past. imagine yourself as an investor in the 20s, the 50s, the 60s, the 70s, and so on. at each inflection point, if you held onto the past--if you lacked the will to imagine Something Unknown (not necessarily its particulars, except the particular possibility that it might exist)--you would have fought the last war and run down the same road, assuming it went on forever. the drunken road of 90% margin in 1929. the green road of Savings Bonds in the early 50s. the yellow brick road of gold in the 70s and the paydirt of Japanese real estate in the 80s...each time you would follow the mirage of continuity over a cliff and before you know it, you have a hard landing on the rocky shoals of Dead Lemmings Past... why should today be any different? there is a road to riches out there being trudged by millions. and it's a lie.