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To: BWAC who wrote (1589)	8/3/2001 11:19:31 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 2155

GX is a bit troublesome but wait and see. I've been in and out of this issue. More loss than gain though.

To: BWAC who wrote (1589)	8/3/2001 11:31:56 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 2155

Employment numbers do not look bad at all... 9:01 (Dow Jones) The adult male unemployment rate declined from 4.0% to 3.9%, while the adult female unemployment rateedged up from 3.8% to 3.9% as well. The teenage unemployment rate rose from 14.3% to 14.8%. A year ago the teenage rate was 13.4%, adult women were at 3.7%, and the rate for adult men was 3.2%. (JM) 8:57 (Dow Jones) In simplistic, what-does-it-mean-for-market terms, the July jobs data seem to help neither stocks nor bonds. The report wasn't strong enough to tellingly convince of an economic bottom being made. Such a report would have boosted the hopes of earnings-challenged companies and the stock market. But the report wasn't weak enough to make economic seers significantly gloomier. Such a report would have raised hopes of a more aggressive Fed and helped bonds. What we got from jobs data simply damps spirits and implies a long, bumpy road to economic recovery. (NL) 8:51 (Dow Jones) Average hourly earnings only rose by 0.3% in July, but the increase in June was revised up from an initial 0.3% estimate to a revised 0.5% estimate. That and the net upward revisions to payroll changes in May and June are reminders that the July data must still be interpreted cautiously. (JM) 8:49 (Dow Jones) The employment/population ratio moved up to 63.9% in July from 63.7, a sign of more extensive employment among the over-16 year old population available to work. (JM) 8:46 (Dow Jones) Stock futures have come back modestly from their levels before the jobs report, but are still looking softish. Nothing dramatic to start, though. (TG) 8:41 (Dow Jones) Treasurys have moved even lower, and the slide is - as expected - hitting the front-end worst. The two-year yield is up 6 BP to 3.96%. The market has been increasingly moving this week to expect that the Fed would ultimately have to be more aggressive than previously thought with its easings, and now that chance is coming back out of the market. (MSD) 8:38 (Dow Jones) Payrolls were down 42,000 in July, the decline in June was revised from -114,000 to -93,000, and the increase in May was revised from an increase of9,000 to an increase of 41,000. On balance, these data show the labor market bouncing along the bottom and with jobless claims improving in late July, it looks like the job market may be stabilizing. (JM) 8:36 (Dow Jones) The conflicted picture on the economy continues. The jobs market is softer than it was, and a 4.5% unemployment rate for July is nothing to sneer at. So with manufacturing remaining firmly in the dumps, the Fed's jobs remains a complicated one. (MSD) 8:34 (Dow Jones) Treasurys are weakening after the report of the better than expected July jobs report. The 10-year is now down 9/32 to yield 5.19%, while the two-year's price is down 3/32 to yield 3.94%. The curve is flattening, with 2s/30s at 165 BP versus 169 BP at the end of Thursday. (MSD) 8:32 (Dow Jones) Payrolls fell by 42,000 in July and the unemployment rate held at 4.5%. The unchanged unemployment rate was better than expected and the payroll decline was less than consensus. Labor market still weak, but not worsening. (JM) 8:30 (Dow Jones) Going into the week's biggest data event, stocks look moderately softer, but that could change in a heartbeat at 8:30 a.m. ET. Any suggested weakness before the payroll numbers can't be too surprising - stocks, particularly techs, have rallied nicely in recent sessions, and given the mixed signals the economy's been sending, this report could come in anywhere. If the unemployment rate is higher than the 4.7% expected, those on the recovery-is-imminent side of the argument may have to do some rethinking. We also get some inflation readings - average hourly earnings as part of the payrolls report and, later, the ECRI Inflation Gauge for July. These may be a no-win for the market - inflation should remain benign, and won't get anyone excited if it does, but if pressures start mounting, it's trouble. Meanwhile, Tyco's (TYC) at it again, this time scooping up Sensormatic (SRM) for $2.3 billion. (TG) (END) DOW JONES NEWS 08-03-01 09:25 AM