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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kapkan4u who wrote (49783)	8/3/2001 2:39:03 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 275872

I think John's estimate of a 60% ASP boost (even if measured off some theoretical lower price that ASPs would have been without SOI, instead of being measured off current ASPs) is a bit too optimistic, but there should be some ASP boost (against atleast off of a lower level that ASPs would have reached without SOI. If SOI works for AMD it should provide not just a boost in absolute mhz but also a boost relative to Intel. If this boost happens then AMD gets some positive effect on its ASPs (but probably not 60% IMO). Tim

To: kapkan4u who wrote (49783)	8/3/2001 3:23:05 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap let's go back to our expense analysis with oversimplified assumptions: 1)soi wafer is 2x the price of regular (I am trying to be conservative) 2)40% profit margin (a bit of wishful thinking here) with no soi 3)variable cost is 40% with current technology lets calculate the incremental asp increase that would be required to justify soi = .5.6.6=.18 If cost is less than 2x then obviously it would be less than 18% so assumptions are somewhat conservative. Potential benefits/losses 1) speed 2) reliability 3) big friend - ibm If soi would not be able to add at least 5% - 15% to their asps then I would feel very uncomfortable. 5% - 15% <=> $3 - $15 Regards -Albert

To: kapkan4u who wrote (49783)	8/3/2001 4:03:48 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

Well, obviously AMD is shrinking the geometry too, and modestly lengthing the pipeline for even further MHz growth. So, I'm talking about 20% increase in clock speed relative to Intel. 20% increase in clock speed would give 60% ASP growth for Hammer vs. 25% slower Hammers. Of course, less than half AMD's output will be Hammer for quite some time, so the effect on overall ASP will be more modest. The current Duron vs. Athlon branding has been unsuccessful because 1. Duron costs are nearly the same as Athlon costs 2. Duron performance is too close to Athlon performance SOI Hammer MHz should be considerably above the best 0.13-bulk Athlon/Duron MHz that we could hope for. Then the SOI Hammers can be sold for considerably more, averaging $200 vs. $60 Petz