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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (115544)	8/3/2001 4:23:38 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 436258

DJ, thanks for the excellent translation. An official repudiation of the "productivity miracle" of the last few years will probably not cause an immediate crash; after all, this has been known for some time. But I think it will definitely influence the huge foreign capital flows to US securities markets -- more than $150 billion net inflows in the first quarter of this year alone. Foreigners are taking official US statistics much more seriously than locals do. Without these capital flows we would have had both a dollar and stock market crash -- albeit a slow motion one. Kyros

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (115544)	8/3/2001 4:34:24 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

The other CPI clev.frb.org so much for positive real interest rates. but then bubbleboy did the same thing in 1991-1992.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (115544)	8/4/2001 7:59:41 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 436258

Prophets in dire straights by Thiemo Heeg, Sueddeutsche Zeitung 4th august When looking for stock trends, a good financial prophet will stick to some simple rules. It is a generally accepted truth that each mountain is usually followed by a valley and euphoria is usually replaced by deep despair. So if the stock exchange shoots for the moon, it is only consistent and logical according to this guideline to assume an imminent crash. And in the present situation, with the world all for justice and balance, there is only one direction possible and it is up. Losses due 90 per cent drop in the New Market should be enough, right? Wrong, thinks Albert Edwards, chief strategist of the Investment bank Dresdner KleinWortWasserstein (DKW). In any case he is predicting another crash on American stock exchanges, leading to a comparable drop in prices. There should be more than 20 percent in store. And it should happen not within a year, but right next week - to be more specific, on the 7th of August. On this day the American statisticians will submit the second quarter economic data. And a new calculation method will lead "to the frightening result, that the American productivity miracle is a phantom." knows Edwards, who sees the death bell tolling for the investors: " this is dynamite for the markets, the investors will be scared to death" Several questions surface immediately: Could it be that Edwards is simply loaded with too many puts, which could ruin him, given further rise in prices? Is he afraid to share the destiny of the Morgan Stanley's star analyst Mary Meeker, who's being dragged to court by angry investors, in case his positive predictions turn sour? Or maybe he's beating the drums with an eye on the job discussion currently going on - after all Allianz, the new DKW's owner, is about to fire 1500 (mainly oversees) employees of her investment daughter. A little publicity-creating prediction can easily turn you into a star, who can't be fired. Even if the probability is in single-digit percents - you can always give it a try. And you can't ever discard a chance of a self- fulfilling prophecy. unsolicited and unauthorized translation of a SZ Editorial on Edwards' brouahaha - DJ