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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (74432)	8/4/2001 9:38:56 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

<This is not a good time to be short gold or gold stocks.> I warned you on the 24th of July in the afternoon when the XAU was at 56+ that the XAU was about to complete its countertrend rally and XAU 47 looked more likely to me than 57. Message 16120822 There are no certainties or guarantees in these markets. There are only probabilities and risk/reward relationships. The POG is intricately tied to the movement of other currencies. The key currency for Gold is the Euro, which represents a genuine alternative to the USD. The commercials are continuing to increase their short positions in regard to the Euro and Swiss Franc. That does not bode well for the POG here or the Gold stocks. I expect the Euro to bottom out, along with the gold stocks, in November/December. There will be many failed rallies along the way. The next one is coming IMO early next week. In contrast to you, I think it is important for people to think for themselves at all times and use their own analysis to determine their investment/trading positions. You have become for me one of the Ultimate Contrarian indicators for Gold Stocks. On July 2, you made this statement: "The need here is for the industry to consolidate, reduce hedging, cut production, and get behind GATA." Message 16023824 "Bulls and Bears make money." One dimensional GATA Boys "get slaughtered."

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (74432)	8/17/2001 8:31:20 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 116753

The Commercials are now short a whopping 55K contracts as of this past Tuesday. I'm somewhat surprised given the steep drop in the USD. Here's another test for the Gold Bulls and their thesis that speculative demand will push the POG dramatically higher. The economic fundamentals are clearly on the Gold Bulls side, but money talks and the commercials have won every battle over the specs in this market since 94. Something is very wrong here IMO if these insiders can be so massively short given the economic, interest rate and currency exhange rate, fundamentals. Betting against these guys when they are short like this is asking to get burnt. But I think they are wrong so I'm staying long. Can Right beat Might? I just don't know if the bulls have enough genuine fire power and infinite endurance powers to beat these guys.