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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (13854)	8/4/2001 5:40:31 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

The VIX is falling even on down days in the market. (Investors are less concerned about the downside as the VIX (put premiums) falls.) The VIX is in a bottoming process here which usually indicates that the market is topping out. Looks like the VIX could still go down and fill some gaps or double bottom here, so maybe we have a few more days of sideways to up action on the major indexes before heading down. stockcharts.com When Merrill Lynch is able to generate a strong two day rally in the semiconductors with no evidence of a bottom in EARNINGS reductions, its not a bottom imo. I dont understand the Complacency index that's discussed here, since only B. has the formula. M.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (13854)	8/5/2001 12:27:00 PM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

The complacency index is bearish when it's trending down from overly high levels, Dennis. Generally, that means that the game is up, that complacency has topped out after rising to unsustainable levels. The sellers are gaining the upper hand again at that point, when the index reverses. Complacency is a contrary indicator. When investors are complacent, it often pays to be cautious. The idea with the index is to see the storm even though the sky is blue, to paraphrase a line in a current film about a Himalayan caravan. When the complacency index reaches extreme low levels (under 30) it'll start to look bullish again. The buy signal will occur when the index reverses to the upside from extreme low levels. That'll indicate that fear and pessimism reached an extreme and that the buyers are getting back in again.