To: orkrious who wrote (22921 ) 8/4/2001 5:57:03 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (3) | Respond to Jay, a very interesting point of view (which I have been "promoting" for a good three years). It is interesting that he does not mention the macro economic event punctuating the bubble's end, which I have talked about quite a number of time, the fact that we were running budget surplus which where more than 1% of GDP. As for his immediate forecast (a 10% to 20% bull move), I am not sure where he has been, the DOW has rallied from 9100 to above 11,000, certainly the 20% he was maxing at and the Naz has rallied from 1600 to 2300, an even greater bounce of more than 40%. I also disagree with his tenet that it is productivity that keeps inflation in check, right now it is, IMTO, worldwide overcapacity (on second read, he also states that increased productivity increases capacity, but I think that capacity increases are due to "misallocation" of capital, not increases in productivity). Of course, once we get all these recently pumped dollars into the system, we may have another "whiff" of inflation, but until we reign in excess capacity, nothing really serious (thus my tenet about the fed's next year move to start and bump interest rates, being a mistake and possibly a precipitator of the next decline, which that author sees as well).
