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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (81212)	8/5/2001 12:46:37 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

Thanks for the kind words, JRI. Funny that the secret of your success is "take profits early," while two others on the board are now in agreement that exiting later is what they need to do... No criticism intended of anyone in the discussion, but statements of that type could stand more specificity about the time frames, entry types, and tradables being discussed. For intraday purposes, in many recent sessions I've seen typically two relatively tradable moments - a trend break against whatever initial impetus, then a break out of consolidation back to resistance. Unfortunately, the narrow ranges and the tendency for individual stocks to get caught up in their own peculiar skirmishes reduce the reward:risk in such moves. The daily charts seem to show a similar trading-range character. In any event, whether trading such moves successfully equates with acting "early" or "late" would depend on whatever your "normal" approach might have been. One trader's "early" can be another's "let profits run." In the meantime, as far as the Nasdaq overall is concerned, it's still easy for me to imagine a re-boosted rally off the 7-11/7-24 double bottom, confirming and completing a rally out of the falling wedge, though, even then, I wonder whether lame breakout = lame rally, and it's just as easy for me to imagine re-tests lower. The suspiciously weak action last Thursday - minor penetration of wedge boundary, on declining volume, conspicuous inability to make new intermediate high (i.e., move above 2105.15), sessions on the NDX and COMPX that closed below their opens after full gap retracements - appears to have set up for failure, especially after Friday's downward follow-through, but, as possible evening star patterns go, the whole Wed-Fri sequence looks even weaker due to the narrow range, mutually containing sessions. I have Friday's session closing almost precisely on the downtrend line, just above Thursday's low, but just below Wednesday's close (AAARGH!). The individual stocks I follow are giving likewise uncertain indications, many having pulled back to support either at or just below apparent breakout points. In short, I do see this market continuing to lay down new markers, but I don't see it giving strong directional signals, or even good imitations of them, as yet - just continued low volume ambiguity, indecision, and grind, now looking forward to CSCO on Tuesday.