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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6717)	8/5/2001 4:05:18 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

D*n, they look so ... human - or should it say "android" to let the high discussion level intact; a hominid from European side of Eurasia dj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6717)	8/5/2001 5:28:21 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

Thanks Jay, (1) Continued political stability Requires income to China to maintain relative living standards with the rest of the world and to gain ground. They can't be politically stable in isolation [or, if they do an Albania, they'll become like a human museum - a kind of mass-produced Amish]. (2) Sustained economic development Requires participating in modern economy. That means CDMA. That means going directly to the latest and greatest. (3) Keep a job That means learn about CDMA and do something with it. (4) Buy a home That means save income from the job making CDMA. (5) Pay down a mortgage That means keep working at the job selling CDMA. Note that CDMA is like 'stone age', not literal, so CB and DJ, don't take it literally. In that context CDMA means modern technology, most of which has been developed elsewhere. So DJ, as I say, from the stone age to the new paradigm, in a single generation. Interestingly, New Zealand is going back to the stone age in a single generation having enjoyed the 3rd highest per capita income in the 1950s. We are going downhill at about the same pace that China is going up. I am going to investigate defecting to China [my mother was born in Manchuria, so maybe I have some rights to entry, being half Chinese]. Mq

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6717)	8/5/2001 10:28:01 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

On your list, numbers 1,3,4, and 5 are dependant on 2 happening. Sustainable economic development, in turn, is dependant on the growth of the export-oriented private sector. And that, in turn, is dependant on the U.S. consumer (every toy I've bought for my 5 and 7-year-old children, for years, has been made in China). And current consumption levels in the U.S. are only possible with ever-increasing levels of debt (see the unsavings rate). This is an obviously unsustainable trend. So at some indefinite point in the short-to-medium term future, things will get abruptly very bad in China. Can the Chinese government survive, if U.S. consumers stop buying Made-In-China toys, in the abrupt way that U.S. corporations have stopped buying Cisco routers? Cisco wrote off a year's worth of excess inventory. I doubt China can "write off" a hundred million or so excess workers.