Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (13882)	8/5/2001 12:47:13 PM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Excellent analysis, Donald. "Right now I have a pattern called a double bottom." Could you give the dates where you see the double bottom? Thanks. -- Brooke

To: donald sew who wrote (13882)	8/5/2001 6:53:51 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 52237

Donald: You are seeing what I am seeing in the VIX. The VIX is a very volatile series and can often be trendless in the short term. But I am getting are loud warning signals in the short and intermediate term with the VIX. A VIX downtrend of this orders sets up the situation where the bulls can only turn and eat their own as the market averages should move at best sideways in this environment. Especially at this time of the year, the upside is limited unless the market suddenly finds visibility. Re: "When I look at the VIX chart, Im actually getting more bearish both for the short-term and longer-term." Yes, and looking at it form another angle, what is the bullish case for the averages in light of the VIX? Even if we just bounce around in here where will that get us in the averages? Not too far, if history is a guide. Last August we trended down even further on the VIX but the gains on the averages were mediocre for that duration. So sideways in a trendless market is the best outcome for the bulls in my mind. Re: "Longer-term, although the VIX has set a MINOR LOCAL LOWER LOW, it is still above the JULY 2 trough 20.26. If the VIX does reverse from here, which is implyed by my short-term technicals, then that is still a HIGHER HIGH compared to the more important JULY 2 TROUGH" I agree. I do not see a lower low on the VIX here. I think, as we have both suggested, this thing is going to reverse shortly and the reversal could be fast and furious. This thing is coiled. Head and shoulders issues aside, it would seem then that a higher high on the VIX looks like the trend that is taking shape. Last week I thought a 10-15% sell off was possible. I think something in the neighborhood of 10% is more probable in the Nasdaq and it could be choppy and take a week. Now if that is the case, we will make lower lows on the Nasdaq on this trip down. Looking to the Sox and Nasdaq, one must ask oneself which is real and which is the pretender. Funny thing is that the Nasdaq was about 2150 the last time the SOX was around 640 in early July. With technicals overbought now and the averages reversing to the downside and with the Nasdaq around 2050, I have to favor the SOX as the pretender. Besides, Sox was looking to reverse at 600 before we got the full blown attack from the bull market industry. Problem is that the Nasdaq and NDX did not hitch a ride on the SOX express. This must have been disappointing to the bulls. Confirmation of this thinking would be short term outperformance in the SOX on the downside.