To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (74520 ) 8/5/2001 10:41:45 PM From: Rarebird Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116752 What is surprising is that people are still bullish on the outlook for gold and gold stocks, which is fine with me. But we live in the age of derivatives and derivatives are nothing other than paper contracts that are derived from the existence of something else, in this case the trading of physical metal. The gold bulls have been arguing for years that this paper market will implode at any moment. But until that happens most bullish gold supporters will continue to get squeezed. Regardless of whether the price goes up or down that pricing is dictated by writers of paper, not supply and demand. Gold Mining company's income used to be derived from the sale of gold. Nowadays a large portion is derived from the sale of derivatives, of paper contracts written on gold produced, gold reserves and in some cases, on contracts already written up. To be sure, not all gold stocks are created equal. Some bring home the bacon, like ABX and PDG, and others, like NEM, don't, and offer the finest excuses for their miscues. I think it is way too early to get bullish on gold, that any rally here would be very short lived and that the gold market is still under the control of the writers of paper contracts. The investment demand that the Gold Bulls always make allusions to, which is suppose to push the POG to astronomical heights, has not materialized yet. Short term, I'm very bearish on gold stocks because I see the Euro declining and possibly hitting new lows, due to tax considerations. Gold's fortunes are very much tied to the Euro. The day will eventually come when investment demand will be able to collect the pens that are being used to write the gold contracts. But until that day comes, I'll be content to trade the gold market on the long and short side and profit accordingly.