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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (50206)	8/6/2001 11:13:55 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

First, congrat's on the grandkid! re Fisher... he has been a bear for some time. I often wonder if these folks show up when there is a market for bearish perspectives and they can actually cater more to what the market wants than what is prudent? When did he go bearish? How much did he make in the run up? To me, they are ALL fortune tellers and the better ones use better magic tricks to make you think they are smart. I believe IBD is one of the best at having it both ways so they look smart nomatter what happens. Guys with radio shows selling stuff do the same. Market commentators. Several types: Those selling something and often what they are selling is their ability to pump a stock before the insiders unload their shares. They are often given preIPO shares themselves to increase their incentive. Blodget, Meeker, et. al. fit that bill. Hired pump-n-dump whores they are. Their goal is to be "TV Spokesmodels" for investment banking business. Then there are those that sell the ability to devine the future. These are the "Market Timers" that have models for this and that and are never without an opinion as to what will happen to the economy. Forget the fact that the ECRI can't even do it that well for just estimating GDP... these folks have you believe they can tell you the market will rise 20% for a quarter or two then crash to new lows or some other scenario. We posted an article on our site this weekend from Barrons where Jeremy Grantham is calling for some strange scenario. It sounds credible but what is unusual is he still has asset classes he thinks will do well. IF there were a real bear, all asset classes would probably tank, but he would have no services to sell you if he said this.... think about it. The only ones I sort of trust is those selling you their individual stock analysis skills, reports, etc. This is pretty easy to see how well they have done over the past few years... Michael Murphy is a great salesman, but I loked at his newsletter in the library last week and saw that CDs would have outperformed his stock picks for the whole 1990s! Can you imagine calling yourself a technology guru and you can't even make much money at it? At least he is honest about his record. It cracks me up that people read it and still subscribe. There are others that hide their records or restate them after bad times. This is also true of mutual funds where bad funds are merged into good funds so the records of the bad funds vanish! enough rambling... my site is down this AM and it feels strange not being able to write there... As to my strategy, I write of it often and it is to own great stocks bought very cheap to form a core portfolio then set an asset allocatio that forces you to take profits when the market goes up and to buy when it goes down. I use things like PEG and my own estimates of market outlook,earnings, etc. for the individual companies to determine what to buy or sell. So far, I have had great results but a terrible bear would cream me compared to those in cash or short... :) Kirk out

To: michael97123 who wrote (50206)	8/6/2001 11:34:47 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael, RE "Ken Fisher(Forbes) predicting 1200 Nasdaq ... He has a pretty good track record so this concerns me." If our Stock market gets a Cold the other Stock Markets of the world will get Pneumonia. I hope Fisher will be proven wrong this time for the sake of all people in the whole world. Once the Nasdaq goes to 1200, no stopping there --- why not Nasdaq going to 100? Actually I don't foresee AMAT going to the Teens (at Book Value to eliminate all Bubbles in it), CSCO going to one Dollar, JDSU going to Pennies (in heaven).