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To: Kirk © who wrote (50218)	8/6/2001 12:45:57 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Kirk, In the Hays scenario, nasdaq goes to somewhere between 3800-4200 i believe. It sounds so ludicrous but so did 1650 when nasdaq was at 4000, much less 5k. I believe the timing of Hays like scenarios is 4th quarter this year or first 2002. mike

To: Kirk © who wrote (50218)	8/6/2001 12:55:42 PM
From: Pink Minion	Respond to of 70976

. I chart investor sentiment (bulls over bulls+bears for newsletter writers) and it never got over 70% But how far back do you go? Not many newsletters in the 60's and 20's. I would almost expect all these to get to 90% before we could have a real bear, the type of bear that has no safe haven. Is that your opinion or do you have historical info? Be wary of using just one indicator.

To: Kirk © who wrote (50218)	8/6/2001 10:53:10 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

re: IF we get a strong market rally that seems to falter at old highs like a double top, perhaps in 2002, then I might lighten up my asset allocation....... There are several million other (newly cautious) investors with the same idea. Me, I'll be back to 70-90% cash (as I was in the first half of 2000), long before the Nas is at 5K. 3K would represent a near-doubling off 2001 lows. When the rush for the exits happens, only the people at the head of the line get out intact. Those will be the people, then as in 2000, who sold based entirely on valuation, before the warning signs (double tops, faltering fundamentals, etc.) I will eat my hat (wide-brim, red nylon), including the chin strap, if we hit 5K on the Nas anytime before 2005.