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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (39826)	8/6/2001 3:46:57 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

$89,161 ... what assumptions are you using? now flip a coin twelve times and tell me how often you get 12 straight HEADS ??? 1 in 4096 I once knew a guy who had 7 daughters and one baby boy son 1 in 64 for 7 straight of same sex 1 in 128 for 7 straight daughters very rare family, never met another like in my whole life I would conclude that 12 straight winners is more rare than this guy's family makeup you said you had a losing trade with JDSU recently so why talk about 12 straight 20% gainers ? if I went to Foxwoods in Connecticut and made a $1000 every day for three years, I would be a millionaire again just what fallacy are you promoting on expected gains ? / jim

To: RR who wrote (39826)	8/6/2001 4:19:58 PM
From: Timetobuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

That would work IF you made 20% on EVERY trade and if you put all your winnings from one trade into the next one. I know a gambler that thinks that's possible too. Sometimes he wins and sometimes he loses. Good thing he doesn't bet his kid's college money like another friend of mine who lost 75% of it on jdsu last year. He's still hoping it comes back but his kid is a high school junior now. Oh well. Easy come, easy go. Good luck on hitting heads every time. What happens if you lose 20% on half of them? You need to go up 25% if you drop 20% just to break even.