Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : News Links and Chart Links -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (467)	8/6/2001 7:07:37 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29594

What to expect now. August 6, 2001. Ord. On last Thursday's commentary, we said, "Today the S&P tested the July 19 high on lighter volume and backed away. This condition could now lead to a consolidation that could last into early next week. We are not looking for a decline here but rather a 30% to maybe a 50% pull back of the recent rally. To keep the bullish picture, the volume should be lighter than the rally leading up to this point. The lighter the volume on this potential pull back the more bullish the picture will become." On today's pull back the volume was extremely light and much lighter than the volume on the rally heading into the August 2 high. Therefore, the volume studies are bullish thus far. Support lies near the 1190 area on the September S&P and should support the market once it gets there. A potential double bottom may form near that level and if the second low of this potential double bottom has lighter volume than the first low and coincides with a bullish candlestick pattern, a bullish short term buy signal will be generated. The "5 day ARMS" on the NYSE closed today over "6.00" and is a bullish sign. This potential bottom process may be complete in the next day or two. Once completed, we are looking for a strong rally up that may test the May 22 high near the 1320 level over the next several weeks. If we get this potential buy signal, we may take a look at the OEX September calls. We are holding long the SPX for mutual funds purposes. The NDX is pulling back on lighter volume than the volume on the rally up to the August 2 high. This condition is a bullish sign. The NDX could trade down near 1665 level, which is the previous swing low set on July 31. If the July 31 swing low is tested, it should be on 10% less volume than the July 31 volume of 1.53 to keep the bullish scenario. We will look for the same scenario as the S&P to trigger a bullish signal on the NDX and that is a low that is tested on lighter volume. We are still long a ½ position in the QQQ at 42.60. We plan to double up this position and possibly look at QQQ calls options on any worthwhile completed pull back. Our intermediate term target in the next several weeks is the May 22 high near the 1870 level on the NDX and near 52 on the QQQ's. Gold for short term is in a minor downtrend. This down trend may end around August 15-time frame, plus or minus 2 days. It is worth noting that the longer the sideways trend the stronger the rally will be when it begins. This condition is called, building "Cause". The Month chart on Gold remains bullish and we are holding long the XAU. marketweb.com