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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (21143)	8/7/2001 6:54:59 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 24042

OT/ at this time VVUS' course has ran. I like HRC better for healthcare if you are interested in Health Care.. news.moneycentral.msn.com cheers TA

To: KM who wrote (21143)	8/8/2001 8:55:45 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Anatomy of a Recession smartmoney.com As you probably know, the worst bear markets are those that coincide with an economic recession. The middle years of the 70s and the years from 1979 to 1982 were nightmares for stock investors. Both periods suffered from high unemployment and shrinking production. Few investors had confidence in corporate earnings, so few bought stock. In contrast, during the 1987 bear market, the economy remained strong for another two years. That helped stocks recover quickly. The SmartMoney Indicators are five key measures of the economy we've chosen to help investors understand the economic outlook: the yield curve; stock yields; housing permits; retail sales (adjusted for inflation); and industrial production. Each item is rated 0 (good), 1 (bad) and 2 (worse). Their composite score is represented in the graph above.* Here's how each of the five indicators work: Typically, as recession approaches, the yield curve inverts first. In other words, longer-term Treasurys suddenly yield less than short-term securities. This happens when investors exit short maturities to lock in the higher rates offered by longer bonds, temporarily driving long-term yields below short-term yields. By tracking the difference between one-year yields and 10-year yields, you'll get a very good idea of what bond investors are thinking about the economy. Second in the sequence: Higher short-term rates begin to look good as stock-market earnings weaken. That's why it helps to follow the earning yield minus the T-bill rate. If T-bill yields look too much better, the stock market will "correct," or even crash. This typically happens three to nine months before the economy stalls. The actual economic slowdown will be initiated by the reduced spending of worried consumers. The next two items in our list track consumer spending. Building permits typically fall off as there is less appetite for new-home buying, and retail sales weaken. Finally, manufacturers get the message that demand is weak and cut back on their industrial production. The higher the composite point score, the harder the economic fall. In the past any reading of six or more has resulted in a recession within 12 months. On the other hand, when the score rose above three and then fell back without reaching six or more, the economy simply slowed without stopping.