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To: Sully- who wrote (39854)	8/6/2001 4:58:57 PM
From: Timetobuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

It's possible to do, no doubt. But I see that he cuts his losses. In other words, there are losses not included in that scenario. Do this with only 10,000 over 2 years and you'd have nearly 800,000. Do it with 100,000 and you'd have 8 million. Do it on margin (since this is a pretty good bet), and in 2 years that 10,000 is now 16 million. Do it with puts on the other side and it's now 32 million. Wade Cook would be proud.

To: Sully- who wrote (39854)	8/6/2001 5:16:27 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 65232

ok, let's look at some actual probabilities suppose you have a 70% chance of winning each trade that is what your due diligence earns you and you make 15 trades.. sound ok? I chose these numbers because I have prob tables they dont have 12 trials you would expect between 10 and 11 winners out of 15 to be exact, you would expect 10.5 winners standard error is 1.775 about 50-50 chance of getting over 10 wins actually the Prob {>10 wins} = 51.5% and Prob {<11 wins} = 48.5% about 3-1 odds in favor of between 9-12 wins the Prob {9,10,11,12 wins} = 74.2% about 7-1 odds against for at most 2 losers the Prob {13,14,15 wins} = 12.7% so forget about runs of winners and deal with the inevitable losses even the fewer losses that come with due diligence better question is... after a loss, does my probability of a next winning trade go up or down ??? my experience with myself and most friends is down Tim, all this talk is crapp setting up expectations that are unreasonable first is was "four trades to a million" now it is "one 20% winner each month" how often are you in 100% cash, awaiting the next real winner opp? what percent or your trades are winners anyway? you wont like the answer if under 50%, then account mgmt is critical for you to ensure winnings exceed more prevalent but smaller losses look at your average win is it bigger than your average loss? if not, and if your winning pct is under 50%, you will enjoy a steady downtrend in your account value I think it is a streaky business for most / jim