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To: techreports who wrote (8900)8/6/2001 7:50:41 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Respond to of 10934
 
More on Gross Margins:

EMC had stable gross margins, from 1994-1999, between 44.9% and 52.1%. GM in 2000 was 58.0%, which was a lot higher than the previous pattern. IMO, GM of high-50s for EMC is probably not sustainable. A return to around 50% is more reasonable. But, depending on how long the current downturn lasts, GMs could go a lot lower, briefly (meaning for a year or two).

For NTAP, gross margins have been more stable. There was no increase in 2000. The range has been very tight, 59.2%-59.3%, for 1999, 2000, and 2001 (FYE in April). Given the latest quarter-on-quarter slide in EMC's margins, from 55.1% to 47%, I think it is very unlikely NTAP can maintain 59% margins, over the next few quarters.

Assuming you think there are bte in the industry, and storage isn't becoming a commodity, you've got to believe in a snap-back in margins once IT budgets come back.



To: techreports who wrote (8900)8/6/2001 11:39:22 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Respond to of 10934
 
>> So should i assume that from now on, EMC and other storage companies will experience gross margins near 40%?

Make no assumptions, but be prepared for the worst.

I've learned that over the last 18 months.

uf