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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (50240)	8/6/2001 11:44:32 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>I doubt the Nasdaq... too much wealth gone forever... how many would Lucent have to hire back and how many more miles of dark fiber can we install?<< You know, new business formation usually surges during recessions. All those laid off ex-employees with time on their hands and maybe severance packages to get them started. All those VCs sitting on a ton of money (still) from investors who aren't going to be patient with money market returns indefinitely. Lucent can rot for all I care. I'm much more interested in the new companies who'll figure out a way to light up all that fiber. Re: new highs on the NASDAQ, when is "soon?" 2005 may be reasonable if you assume the universe of Nasdaq companies is static. But if you see Nasdaq as one of the most dynamic manifestations of the most dynamic economy on the planet, well... a lot can happen in four years. Katherine

To: Kirk © who wrote (50240)	8/6/2001 11:50:31 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OK, I misread. I invest mainly in Nas stocks, so that's what I think of as "the market". That's not a fair comparison, CDs vs. the Nas, because a not-small fraction of the Nas stocks currently traded, are likely to be delisted, between now and 2010. That's unlikely to happen to any CD. If you pick only the Nas stocks that survive, maybe they might outperform CDs. A similar (false) analysis of the railroad industry, would be to look at the return over time of railroad stocks currently listed. That would ignore the returns on the vast majority of railroad stocks over the last 150 years (the ones whose price has gone to zero). In a similar fashion, the 2 or 3 BTC stocks still listed on the Nas in 2010 will probably have had decent returns.