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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (50156)	8/7/2001 10:24:20 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin: "As I see it, the major risk left in this market is due to the market's refusal to have already collapsed Intel's market cap. Intel has a PE of 60, when it should be no higher than 20. If the P4 buildup that is taking place right now does not sell through this fall, Intel could well go to a PE of 20, with an associated market cap reduction of 133 billion. This would crash both the NAS and the DOW. This market depends on Intel not crashing. Sh*t, I just talked myself into going to cash." Agreed, a $133 billion hit would be a grim reaper with respect to general market indices...It's in every long's interest that INTC stay pegged to $30, even though, as you rightly, imo, point out that at $30 it is discounting a "best case" scenario for the P4 and economy going forward (not an impossibility, but highly improbable, imo)...Should q3 qnd q4 see red at INTC, look for INTC in the teens and, as you point out, SOXX and Nas well below current support levels of 600 and 2000 respectively...(Technically, any close by INTC below $29 (maybe test today or tomorrow if CSCO is weak going forward) is a danger signal!)...

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (50156)	8/7/2001 11:39:06 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin: "As I see it, the major risk left in this market is due to the market's refusal to have already collapsed Intel's market cap. Intel has a PE of 60, when it should be no higher than 20. If the P4 buildup that is taking place right now does not sell through this fall, Intel could well go to a PE of 20, with an associated market cap reduction of 133 billion. This would crash both the NAS and the DOW. This market depends on Intel not crashing. Sh*t, I just talked myself into going to cash." Forgot to mention it earlier but Joe on CNBC this AM raised the spectre of "what if" we're in for a sluggish economy for 10 years rather than the 3 months that some are saying...If economy does not soon perk up at these interest rate levels, then what is left to spur economic activity? Maybe it's worth considering, at least for a nonosecond, the probability of occurrence of the scenario raised by Joe...Very, very fuzzy at the moment looking forward, it seems!

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (50156)	8/7/2001 1:04:13 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Pravin: "As I see it, the major risk left in this market is due to the market's refusal to have already collapsed Intel's market cap. Intel has a PE of 60, when it should be no higher than 20. " I see the SOXX is inching closer to 600 (607.11)...Any "spill" by INTC from its current $30.33 could take us for a test of SOXX = 600 later in the day! So far, market forces are propping INTC up admirably well!

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (50156)	8/8/2001 12:13:02 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin: By the looks of things the market absorbed CSCO's two cents worth fairly well so far as CSCO is hangin' in fairly well around $19...CSCO's report is very similar to INTC's both for the quarter and looking forward, maybe even better, yet INTC continues to defy gravity by hangin' in at $31...Seems that there may be way more dollars out there than "quality" investments for INTC to be att $31 relative to CSCO's $19! Personally, I like CSCO's prospects going forward better than INTC's, but a year out AMD's look much better than either!