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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (50255)	8/7/2001 12:21:57 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Alastair, thanks for posting what CSFB really said. It is still lacking in sense... >Our argument is two-fold: (1) We are not at a bottom for SCE fundamentals, and most likely we are not within 20% of a bottom and (2) even when a bottom is established, growth from the bottom will be lackluster at best.< That's no argument. It's an expectation, a guess. Gottfried

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (50255)	8/7/2001 12:22:19 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 70976

More from CSFB this morning: Our View of the Next Several Quarters Bookings should have downward bias in Sept 01, Dec 01 and potentially March 02; trough is not within a 20% range. Chip industry still has not shown any signs of stabilizing. Do not mistake seasonal build rates for seasonal sell-through. Pricing and margin pressure on chip companies is apt to delay any recovery. Project delays and pushouts will become more prevelant at 300 mm in 2H01; including INTC. Next upgrade cycle will be 193 nm lithography at 8 inch, low capital cost, good productivity gains. Expect another contraction in cap-ex in 2002 of at least 15%. Expect further significant cost cutting measures for our companies - many are fighting not to lose money. Sequential growth in bookings unlikely until 2H02, the beginning of a sustainable recovery is 12 months away.