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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39948)	8/8/2001 2:19:58 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Jupiter Slashes Online Ad Forecasts Aug 8 12:59am ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Internet research firm Jupiter Media Metrix on Wednesday slashed its estimates for online advertising spending over the next few years, another indication that the slowdown in the online advertising market is tightening its grip. Jupiter said it was now forecasting online ad spending of $5.7 billion this year, sharply down from a previous forecast of $7.3 billion. But while Jupiter said it still expected online ad spending to bounce back over the next few years, reaching more than $15 billion by 2006, it cut its forecast for 2005 to more than $12.9 billion, down from a previous estimate of $16.5 billion. "Marketers' inability to evaluate online advertising effectively has lead to the current hiccup in spending," said Marissa Gluck, senior analyst for Jupiter Media Metrix at Jupiter's online ad summit in New York. But she said, that despite the downturn, Internet advertising offered long-term benefits to advertisers. "Online advertising, when fully measured, remains a strong impetus of consumer action -- including increasing traffic and sales, inspiring loyalty and promoting referrals," she said. "While reduced financial resources is still a key factor inhibiting the growth of online advertising, the primary online advertising industry stimuli are still around and will be." According to Jupiter, online advertising will account for seven percent of the total advertising market in 2006 -- up from three percent in 2001. Financial services companies will account for the most online ad spending by 2006 -- a total of $2.1 billion, Jupiter said. Automotive and media companies will be the next largest online ad spenders, accounting for $2 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively. Jupiter said a lot of the growth in the online marketing space over the next few years will come from digital marketing, such as coupons, promotions and e-mail instead of straight advertising on Web sites. It is forecasting that spending on digital marketing will surpass that of online advertising and reach $19.3 billion by 2006 from an expected $2 billion this year. "Currently, the online advertising industry is more mature than digital marketing initiatives such as sweepstakes, coupons and promotions," Gluck said. "However, as marketers demand a greater impact from their online investment, publishers risk losing dollars to marketing initiatives that don't require their involvement, such as online contests, movies and games," she told the summit. "Publishers must find ways to diversify their offerings to become more appealing to advertisers and should explore types of integrated relationships that focus on product and consumer rewards."

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39948)	8/8/2001 2:26:09 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Jobless Numbers May Be Misleading Tuesday August 7, 8:50 pm Eastern Time TheStandard.com By Jeff Palfini Last week's surprisingly tame unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, combined with shrinking numbers of layoffs in the tech sector, has some analysts showing guarded optimism for the first time in several months. Away from Wall Street, though, experts are much less upbeat. Wall Street analysts are rallying around the fact that the number of employees on U.S. payrolls has dropped only 42,000 in the past month, as well as the fact that unemployment rates have held steady at 4.5 percent. Many have taken this news to mean that the economic slowdown might be tapering off. Employment research firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas' monthly tech-sector report fueled that optimism, showing a third-straight month of decline in tech job cuts, and the lowest monthly total since last October. "I don't think we've seen the last of the bad news," says Gerald Cohen, senior economist at Merrill Lynch. "But by the end of the fourth quarter, we'll see signs that the economy is stabilizing ... and the tech sector should gain strength next year." But analysts at the Economic Cycle Research Institute say not so fast. They warn that the two sets of numbers Wall Street analysts are interpreting as cause for optimism on the Street are a statistical coincidence and do not provide reliable information about the future. "The key concept in a business-cycle slowdown is if it is snowballing," says Anirvan Banerji, director of research at ECRI. "If one sector gets hit hard like the tech sector did last year and it does not spread, then other sectors can rescue it; but if the troubles spread to other sectors, the downturn will feed on itself and a recession will follow." John Challenger, CEO of tech industry employment-research firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, has similar concerns about the government's numbers. "I think we've got the new economy -- the tech sector -- in recession, and the old economy -- manufacturing and the industrial sector -- in recession, and the only part that is holding it up is the services sector," says Challenger. "But there are some cracks beginning to appear there, and that worries me." Banerji says the Employment Diffusion Index, a statistic that measures the pervasiveness of job loss across different sectors of the economy, has been an almost perfect predictor of recession. Last week's report showed July's EDI to be 47, under 50 for the fourth-straight month. The EDI is determined by taking the percentage of the 353 nonfarm industries experiencing job loss and half of those experiencing no gain or loss and then subtracting it from 100 percent. A number below 50 percent means that more industries are experiencing job loss than are experiencing gains. During the past half-century, when this has happened for four months in a row or more, a recession has followed in all instances but one -- and that instance was deemed, by government committee, a 'mini-recession.' ECRI's Banerji warns that a recession is afoot and says he does not see any relief in the near future. "As long as profits are under pressure, you have a situation where even if the incentive was there for tech investment, the money isn't there," Banerji says. "Eventually, prices will fall enough and demand will pick up, and we will emerge from this recession. But with what the EDI tells us, that will be later rather than sooner."