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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (12923)	8/7/2001 3:56:48 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78516

Good Luck with NBR. I need more positive Free Cash Flow from a company than they have reported on the last two 10Ks. I'm not sure how much or how soon these hybrid automotive products will affect the market demand. I heard on the radio on the way to work this morning that GM has announced an electric fuel cell product that is powered by gasoline, so you just fill your tank as always, but it increases fuel efficiency by 50%. If affordable and true, that will reduce the need for land drillers pretty dramatically over time. Timba

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (12923)	9/30/2001 11:34:06 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78516

I still have NBR on my watch list. I see that Marty Whitman says he's adding to his NBR position. I've also been looking now at Mike Burry's pick of TDW. finance.yahoo.com I like NBR because they're dominant in land drilling. And twice as big (market cap) as TDW. TDW is off-shore drilling. Stock prices look correlated: finance.yahoo.com Price/sales better (lower) for NBR. NBR has grown sales, but has increased debt and shares outstanding in doing it. TDW revenues fluctuate, and to me, don't look like they've really grown much. Company has been profitable though. BIG PLUS for me is that TDW has no long term debt. TDW looks safer to me (and I am guessing) but has less upside potential than NBR (I am guessing). Maybe both stocks ought to be bought as a package. Get on-shore and off-shore combined. Maybe neither stock should be bought since the oil bidness seems to be out of favor and the stock trend for both companies is down. I'll likely start a small position in TDW tomorrow though. I'll go with less potential (I am guessing) % recovery to highs, but for more safety (of no ltd) and the assumption that if business is cyclical, somewhere around here will be the cyclical low. Or if not, that I can hold on until the business and stock recover (assuming they do). Paul S.