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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39959)	8/7/2001 2:47:54 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

JW - Well now we are there. You have said:- 1. business has slowed down more abruptly in the last 9 months than anytime in postwar history 2. Interest rates now are 3.75% but in 92 were only 3% That is enough. It is now, belatedly, admited by almost everyone except perhaps Mr Greenspan that what we are seeing is the worst economic conditions in living memory maybe even longer. These people in the Fed are still talking about here being growth but most companies I keep seeing are talking about no bottom in sight. Now these people in the Fed are not idiots nor are they blind. So why do they keep seeing the opposite to what the rest of the world sees? The answer must be that they do not see different things than the rest of us but that they are saying what they are in support of a policy of collapsing the economy. Now why would they possibly do that? Well one possible reason is that they are trying to deal with the "imbalances" that Mr G has previously referred to and the way to do that is to crush the economy. I happen to believe, crazy as it might sound that there is no other possible explanation. If they want to begin to repair the damage they ahve done then they should have interest rates lower than they were at a time when the economy was bad but nowhere near as bad as today. And they should keep them there for some time and only raise them after several years. See two can play that no hope for years game. BTW whenever you hear " We and the market are all waiting for CSCO after the bell". Whenever you hear that "just waiting nonsense you know the market is ready to tank. If the market recovers as result of the CSCO announcement then it won't last more than half a day before some house comes out and says sell into strength. Best regards, L

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39959)	8/7/2001 3:52:24 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

13:53 ET Fed Speak : Chicago Fed President Moskow is cautiously optimistic that U.S. growth will improve; sees rebound as approach 2002 and into next year. Stated that Fed is encouraged by falling energy prices; considerable part of inventory adjustment over; modest inflation should remain contained. Demand is expected to be stimulated by the Fed rate reductions.