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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (10144)	8/8/2001 5:55:53 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Gersh, I don't like to steal your courage, but... let me play this "advocatus diaboli" for a moment taking a pessimistic look at your fork-chart: 1. We're still below the upper black tine 2. We're still have to cross all moving averages 3. The base of your lower red tine seems to me not far too convincing - there were 4 lows before looking stronger ng. But I'm in doubt mainly due to the overall look of the economy: 1. We have to stay yet the impact of these gigantic layoff-waves in US - when the tax-checks are spended, we could see a hard breakdown of the consumer-trust. 2. AG's actionismn had no impact yet in longterm interest - thus no impact in industry. 3. Even IF we do get a certain boom in IT eoy this will happen eoy - a lot of time for additional waves along the upper black tine. 4. Longterm imho we never will see again any greater boom neither from IT nor from communications nor from internet - all these trends are obviously outdated having lost as their fascination as the function pushing the economy. But we do need a new wave for growing-rates like in the near past - nevertheless I cannot see what could take this place in the near future. As long as no new boom is in sight we will have to accept a possibly long phase of (somtimes painful) consolidation. 5. Longest term: While infrastructure-adaption in Europe is just in the tender beginning something like this has even not yet started in US. I cannot call $-amounts for a worldwide restructuring of energy-handling, ressources, environment and so on but markets like we use to knew cannot continue during such a period, that's for sure. For eldermen like us the only question is if this process will start while we're still alive or not. ng Just the view of an old stupid beachpotato ggg Jury