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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39968)	8/7/2001 5:03:28 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

JW - We have almost reconciled our diference. Can we just take a look at the speed of the global collapse? There was so much hype last year about inflation and drum tight labor conditions that investors and the market had been wound up like a spring. I remember the Bond Babe seeming to me to jump gleefully on every snippet of what in other circumstances would have been good news but in the madness of last year was considered very bad news. JW I remember it very well we were all of us being wound up to expect a move to slow down what we were led to believe was an overheated economy. In actual fact it was an economy about to slow by itself and 6.5% just about killed it stone dead. It was a total sham to believe things were overheating it was a con. The reality is that there have been 13m immigrants to the US in the last ten/fifteen years and this has been wonderful for the economy. Many of these immigrants are highly educated and help keep the empoyment situation much loser than statistics would have us believe. In addition to that my guess is that the statistics weren't that accurate anyway due to people with 2nd jobs, housewives temporary workers etc. And now of course we find out that the GDP growth was in fact lower than they calculated at the time. So we were all wound up for nothing. All that happened in my view is that a lot of people became quite financially comfortable that the old codgers and the establishment didn't like becoming comfortable. That is of course its OK to become comfortable when you are a few short years from death or just about to become infirm but not in your youth. No this was no good at all and all the old codgers were being made to look dumb and they looked very uncomfortable. Just imagine it people in their 20s, 30s and even G-d forbid 40's being able to retire on market gains. No this was absolute heresy. I loeved watching their grumpy old faces as they winced at tech gains. OK they eventually won but for a few short months it was great to see. Anyway the speed of the collapse was spectacular and was a result of all the hype built up and sustained by Mr Gs unwarranted interest rate hikes. We do now know that they were unwarranted don't we. So, finally, if we are to get the economy back on track Mr G has got more work than if he were dealing with a normal down turn. He has got to convince all the gloom and doomster and the shorts that he means business and the won't take prisoners. In other words down to 3% immediatly and muore much more if the economy doesn't pick up within a month. And as for GW someone needs to get him to at least appear to be concerned that there is a global slump and that that will affect jobs both in Pennsylvania Ave and in Texas. Maybe stay in Washington and look like you are doing something urgently, appear to try. I'm not sure that the tax cut hasn't already been spent so do more. Best regards, L