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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moufassa7 who wrote (53966)	8/7/2001 5:38:51 PM
From: TWICK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

That's the spirit.

To: moufassa7 who wrote (53966)	8/7/2001 5:54:23 PM
From: Kanetsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Coast is now clear to short the semis for the long term, one more week of no news, and then back to warning season. Semis are way overpriced historically, and the sox is up about 10% this year while computer stocks are down 20% and telco is down 40%. According to some analysis a hedge fund sent me, the average p/e ratio for semis in the sox, based on analysts estimates of 2002 earnings is 84. The lowest is 44 (amat, intc). consider that the estimated industry sales for this year (estimated at around $170 billion and falling) are little higher than the $150 billion in 1995, when the sox index ranged from between 150-300. Sox is currently in the 600s, so though we are much lower than this time last year, there is still a rally to sell and plenty of downside if I am right. short picks: brcm, brcd, altr, mxim, klac, nvda. also short bby as I think the retail sector on the electronics side is starting to crack, finally. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.