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To: Ilaine who wrote (115923)	8/7/2001 6:40:54 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

you are a clown. please leave.

To: Ilaine who wrote (115923)	8/7/2001 7:00:09 PM
From: Jack of All Trades	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I think it signals the consumer is getting tight, not spending. Hence a slowdown will be felt. I can't imagine that everyone is paying cash... I was at my local convient store this am to fillup and the guy in front of me bought 4 paks of butts on his CC, nothing else... My guess is that will hold him over to pay day. The wierd thing was he bought 3 different kinds maybe his buddies were broke also...

To: Ilaine who wrote (115923)	8/7/2001 7:19:50 PM
From: Mark Adams	Respond to of 436258

I was tempted to say much the same, but instead I'll say this. Perhaps neither were statistically significant... <g>

To: Ilaine who wrote (115923)	8/7/2001 7:21:25 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

<<What's with you guys? When debt was going up, that was grounds for gloom-and-doom, now debt is going down, and that's grounds for gloom-and-doom, as well.>> The consumer reigned it in only because he had no real choice. It's a bubble, just like when stocks started falling in March 2000...because no one could bring themselves to buy anymore. That the consumer is already dangerously overextended in debt is obvious. J4P could borrow more but is no longer willing. It's not because credit isn't being offerred, heck, credit card companies and mortgage lenders are literally everywhere...in e-main, on TV, in magazines, in junk mail. They MUST keep lending (because it's a bubble, and because when they slow down, measurements of deteriorating debt quality will skyrocket). This is the basis for Buffet's famous quote that "when the tide (economically speaking) goes out, we get to see who's been swimming without a bathing suit (ie, extending reckless credit). But thought they must keep lending, Joe DOESN'T have to keep borrowing. The inflection point is when Joe recognizes he's in trouble, and starts to reign it in. Debt accumulation was bad for 5 years, and bulls would claim "it can go on forever". It can't and won't. Of course it was bad that they continued running the debts up into the second half of this year...they've been doing it to FUND CONSUMPTION and maintain an unsustainable lifestyle. The funding has come at the expense of home equity, savings and stock equity assets. Now that Joe/Jane4P finally realize it, their behavioral changes (less debt, less spending) will kick out the economy's last remaining prop. I DON'T think it's wrong for each individual consumer who has scads of debt to his name to pull in his/her horns. That's the right thing to do. What's right for the consumer and what's good for the economy (and especially for the financial service industry, mortgage lenders and subprime lenders) are two far different things right now. Regards Patron

To: Ilaine who wrote (115923)	8/7/2001 10:04:36 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 436258

am i going to have to give you the boot? -g-

To: Ilaine who wrote (115923)	8/8/2001 4:12:20 PM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

What's with you guys? When debt was going up, that was grounds for gloom-and-doom, now debt is going down, and that's grounds for gloom-and-doom, as well. Your inner bull is producing pretzel logic. Debt going up was the grounds for the boom, not doom & gloom. The overall size of the debt (on a macro and micro basis) was the grounds for the notion that this must soon reverse into debt going down, which is bad. Tom

To: Ilaine who wrote (115923)	8/8/2001 4:36:03 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 436258

I see where you are coming from. Not as many new holes are not being dug doesn't mean that already dug ones are being filled. Lenders, especially sub-prime lenders (COF and PVN) rely on continued borrowing from the consumer to SHOW profitability. Regardless of how low discount rates are, reduced levels of borrowing coupled with increasing default rates is a recipe for disaster. Disclosure: I own puts on PVN and COF as I bought in to this logic. (back to work! -ng-)