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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (8228)	8/8/2001 9:09:29 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

From Brieging this morning: 08:49 ET SoundView on Optical : Hearing from sources that SoundView says now is the time to buy optical stocks; cites inventory decline of more than 20%, more realistic street estimates, and the fact that large bandwidth buyers have begun to cut capacity deals and some multi-year buys. Reiterates STRONG BUY on: CIEN, DIGL, FNSR, JDSU, ONIS, TELM.

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (8228)	8/8/2001 12:14:02 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

From Briefing: 09:37 ET Openwave (OPWV) 23.89 -0.33: USB Piper Jaffray was out with a note late yesterday afternoon after OPWV appeared at the USB conference; noted that KDDI (one of OPWV's largest customers) reported a monthly decline in wireless subscriber additions for the fourth straight month; Piper believes slowdown in WAP additions in Japan will continue, and anticipates FQ1 revenues at the low end of guidance as a result.

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (8228)	8/8/2001 9:53:25 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

DoubleClick zdnet.com

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (8228)	8/8/2001 11:57:35 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

FORWORDED:Today the pundits had this to say about the Biege book, smaller guys like me foro nce agreed with hte pundits today..<It reflects an economy that continues to expand, but at a very slow pace. With little surprising news and little differentiation between the regions, it will have little impact on Wall Street. It should also have little impact on monetary policy.> But it was not to be, markets on the up never rationalize nor do they on the way down, market tends to build the news slowly albeit and takes the path of least resistance. Today opposite to my expectations it was the downward path not upward..we will live for another day may be. I thought it was upward after that 1202 punch from 1195 bounce bit it was not to be, market realized the dangers of biege book and thought that the negative points far outstrip the positives, out went all logic in came selling that was heavy and borke that 1190 area. According to Dismal Scientest < This month’s beige book illustrated remarkably few differences between the regions. Indeed, the economic performance of the major regions is looking increasingly similar. Manufacturing continues to be the primary drag on the regional economies, and the beige book notes that the impact has spread to other support industries. Overall, all regions are reporting slow growth, or what the Fed calls "lateral movement", i.e. no growth. Nowhere is there anything that might be called robust economic growth. The Numbers The regional economies are characterized by either slow economic growth or "lateral movement" in June and July. Manufacturing in nearly all industries and in all regions is declining. The weak manufacturing activity is spilling over into weak demand for office space, trucking and shipping. The only bright spot in the regions is a robust housing market, supporting demand for mortgage services. The housing market is currently driven by low interest rates, which impacts the housing market rather uniformly across the regions. Outside of residential mortgages, demand for credit is weakening and banks are tightening credit standards for most types of loans except for residential mortgages. Labor markets are loosening everywhere, as evidenced by a nearly uniform climb in unemployment rates across the country. The beige book notes that the upside for employers is that wage pressures have eased nearly everywhere, and input costs in general are easing as prices for energy, fuel, and other material inputs fell in most regions. Behind the Numbers Both market and policy analysts will likely take heart from this report. It clearly indicates that economic weakness is spreading, but it sets off no alarm bells that warn of the approach to a precipice. The most dire news, already rather well known, is that nearly every Fed District reports new orders and shipments for manufactured products remained sluggish. It particularly notes weak production in apparel, textiles, computers, semiconductors, steel and telecommunications gear. Again, this is no surprise. It also notes softening international demand. Again here, no surprise. Finally, most Districts noted that producers were making progress in running down their excess inventories. This too is well known, although it is not necessarily applicable for semiconductors and telecommunications gear. On a positive note, residential real estate markets are characterized as stable, with some regional weaknesses, particularly within high-end markets in the Boston, Chicago and San Francisco Districts. The one sour note expressed in the beige book is there are some reports of deteriorating credit quality, particularly for credits to manufacturing and agricultural industries. This report was remarkably measured and unremarkable in its tone and content. It reflects an economy that continues to expand, but at a very slow pace. With little surprising news and little differentiation between the regions, it will have little impact on Wall Street. It should also have little impact on monetary policy. The Fed will likely cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. There is nothing in this report that would push the FOMC one way or another on this. >