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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (14123)	8/8/2001 9:46:19 AM
From: Chris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

cybersavvy chart Message 16181618 im waiting for the bottom stochs indicator to reach oversold. (my stochs is very similiar)

To: Paul Shread who wrote (14123)	8/8/2001 9:47:19 AM
From: Wayners	Respond to of 52237

Excellent point on the revenue fudging--not impossible with stuffing the channel, but you're right its a lot harder. Okay, I just ran the CSCO numbers based on the 0% to 5% down sequential revenue. That would put November revenue guidance at between 4083.1M and 4298M. The year over year comparison is with a tough revenue number...6519M, so the year over year would be between -34.1% and -37.4% as compared to this quarter's -25%. On a chart, the rate of change of these growth rates isn't dropping as fast, but isn't getting better either. The next quarter after that, Feb 02, also has a tough comparison against 6748M in revenue. If revenues stay flat sequentially in the 4100 to 4300M range, then that quarter is going to look like -36.3% to -39.2%, which would show more of a flattening out. The quarter after that one would actually start to show an improvement as the comparisons get easier. With constant flat revenue, May 02 would be versus 4728M, with a year over year of -9.0%--which in my experience and lots of charting of these fundmamental numbers versus stock price---people will buy. Its possible people will buy CSCO on just the flattening out of the negative growth rates. I'm thinking the bottom on CSCO will occur between Feb '02 and Mar '02, at the latest, unless the guidance changes, and I'd say after Nov earnings at the earliest.