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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (54410)	8/8/2001 4:24:50 PM
From: Ed Forrest	Respond to of 77400

MM Think Cisco is responsible for this? cme.com Ed

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (54410)	8/8/2001 4:26:14 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

No, they haven't admitted to being a cyclical. A lot of tech companies are finding out, the hard way, that they are really cyclicals. For instance, EMC's CEO just said that he has (now) developed detailed contingency plans, for various futures. He has a "plan B", in the event of a prolonged global recession. No more talk about how storage is so crucial to business, that EMC will be "immune" to macro events. I really wish Chambers would quit with the 30-50% LT growth forecast. Every time he repeats it, he puts more pressure on Cisco's Creative Accountants, to make the numbers come out the way they are "supposed to". IMO, in network equip, CSCO can't expand market share, and the market won't grow enough to create 30%, much less 50%, growth. In telecom equip, I think CSCO will probably come out of this downturn, having taken a lot of market share, in a huge market they don't yet dominate. But spending on telecom equip isn't going to turn up in the next 12 months, so it is still too early to buy CSCO. Spending on telecom equip can't bottom, until we've seen a total shutdown in credit availability, and a huge wave of debt write-offs. IMO, Cisco is a "growth cyclical", like the semi-equips. A "mature cyclical" might be worth a P/S of 2. A company that, over the LT (average over several cycles), grows EPS at 25%/year, is worth more than a P/S of 2, even if every decade or so, demand for their products goes away for a year or two. Actually, CSCO could hit a P/S of 2, if the entire world slides into recession in 2H01. And that would be a buying opportunity, for those with courage and cash at the bottom.